000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151606
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A cold front moving across the
Gulf of Mexico today will move E of the Gulf Tue night, allowing
strong high pressure to build over NE Mexico in the wake of the 
front, which will cause northerly winds to funnel through the
Chivela Pass, leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Strong N winds will begin Tue morning increasing
to gale force with seas to 9 ft by late Tue afternoon. Gales and
building seas to 14 ft will continue to affect the region 
through Wed afternoon. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish 
and reach gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of western Panama near
08N82W to 07N87W. The ITCZ extends from 07N87W to 07N120W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the ITCZ between 101W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends just west of the Baja California 
offshore waters anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure northwest of 
the area near 31N125W. This is generating moderate to fresh
northerly winds over the offshore waters to the west of Baja 
California. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. In the central and
northern Gulf of California, NW winds are gentle to moderate with
seas to 2 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are
gentle with seas in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico 
today will move E of the Gulf Tue night, allowing strong high 
pressure to build over NE Mexico in the wake of the front, which 
will cause northerly winds to funnel through the Chivela Pass, 
leading to gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Strong N winds will begin Tue morning increasing to gale force 
with seas to 9 ft by late Tue afternoon. Gales and building seas 
to 14 ft will continue to affect the region through Wed 
afternoon. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish and reach 
gentle to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate 
to locally fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle speeds Thu 
morning. Light to gentle NW winds in the southern half of the 
Gulf of California will reach moderate speeds again Tue through 
early Wed. Looking ahead, another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event could begin by Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas 6 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to
fresh N winds are reaching as far south as 05N with seas 5 to 6
ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker, with seas ranging 
from 3 to 4 ft over the Central America offshore waters and 4 to
5 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. The dominant
swell affecting the region is from the south. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to ENE winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo through the week and into the 
upcoming weekend, possibly reaching near-gale force Wed night.
The area of strong winds in the offshore Papagayo region will 
expand in coverage by Wed through Fri night with developing rough
seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through the week. Otherwise, rough seas in 
northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters Wed through Wed night due to a strong 
gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A stationary front extends from 30N136W to 24N140W. Fresh to
locally strong S winds continue ahead of the front with seas 
ranging from 8 to 11 ft N of 24N and west of 133W. East of this 
system, a 1021 mb high pressure is located north of the area 
near 31N125W. This feature is creating a pressure gradient with 
the ITCZ which is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 
the ITCZ to 17N and W of 115W with seas from 8 to 10 ft. North 
of 18N, under the high pressure, winds are gentle to moderate and
seas 6 to 7 ft. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are moderate with 
seas in the 6 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will
lift north of the forecast waters and merge with another system.
Strong winds ahead of the cold front will diminish to moderate 
to fresh speeds today. Seas in the NW part of the area will 
subside below 10 ft tonight, however will stay above 8 ft 
through Wed as a new front enters the NW forecast waters by 
tonight. Looking ahead, the new low will meander just W of the 
area while deepening before shifting NE. This will increase the 
pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to develop fresh to
strong SW winds and very rough seas to near 15 ft Wed night 
through Thu evening.

$$
Hagen