000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150946
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today is forecast
to move E of the Gulf Tue night. Strong high pressure and
associated ridging will build in the wake of the front, which
will lead to the next Tehuantepec gap wind event. Northerly winds
will funnel through the Chivela Pass and lead to fresh to strong
N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec region beginning Tue morning,
and gale-force winds with seas to 9 ft by Tue evening. Gales and
building seas to 12 ft will continue to affect the region 
through Wed evening. Afteward, winds will gradually diminish and 
reach gentle to moderate speeds Thu in the afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W 
to 08N82W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 06N110W to
05N126W beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 03N to 10N between 96W and 120W, and from 04N to 07N 
between 125W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore 
waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure northwest of the area 
near 31N125W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient
with lower pressure over Mexico, which is generating gentle to 
moderate NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters, 
except N of Punta Eugenia where NW winds are fresh with seas to 
8 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are moderate with seas 
to 4 ft N of 15N. In the Gulf of California, winds are light to 
gentle with seas to 2 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, 
winds are light and variable with seas in the 3-5 ft range in NW 
swell.

For the forecast, a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico 
today is forecast to move E of the Gulf Tue night. Strong high 
pressure and associated ridging will build in the wake of the 
front, which will lead to the next Tehuantepec gap wind event. 
Northerly winds will funnel through the Chivela Pass and lead to 
fresh to strong N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec region beginning
Tue morning, and gale-force winds with seas to 9 ft by Tue 
evening. Gales and building seas to 12 ft will continue to affect
the region through Wed evening. Afteward, winds will gradually 
diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds Thu in the 
afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the Baja 
California offshores will diminish to light to gentle speeds Thu 
morning. Otherwise, light to gentle NW winds in the southern half
of the Gulf of California will reach moderate speeds again Tue 
through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 6 ft while in the Gulf of Panama moderate 
to locally fresh N winds are reaching as far as 04N with seas to
5 ft. Light to gentle winds dominate across the rest of the 
region with seas ranging from 3-4 ft over the Central America 
offshore waters and to 5 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. The swell affecting the region is from the south. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend. Strong winds will
expand in coverage by Wed through Fri night with developing rough
seas to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Panama through the entire forecast period. Otheriwse, rough
seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and 
El Salvador offshore waters Wed through Wed night due to a strong
gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A low pressure system west of the area has a cold front
associated with it, extending in the far NW corners of the
forecast waters from 30N135W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong S winds
continue ahead of the front with seas ranging from 8 to 12 ft. 
East of this system, a 1023 mb high pressure is located north of
the area near 32N125W. This feature is creating a pressure 
gradient with the ITCZ which is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds from the ITCZ to 18N and W of 115W with seas from 8 to 10
ft. North of 18N, under the high pressure, winds are gentle to 
moderate and seas 7 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ, SE winds are 
gentle to moderate with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will
lift north of the forecast waters and merge with another system.
Strong winds will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight into 
early Mon. Seas will subside below 12 ft tonight, however will 
stay above 8 ft through Wed as a new front enters the NW forecast
waters by Mon night. Looking ahead, the new low will meander 
just W of the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will 
increase the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to 
develop fresh to strong SW wind and very rough seas to near 15 
ft Wed night through Thu evening.

$$
Ramos