000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150346
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico tonight into Tue
night. Strong high pressure and associate ridging will build in
the wake of the front, which will lead to the next Tehuantepec
gap wind event. Northerly winds will funnel through the Chivela
Pass and lead to fresh to strong N to NE winds in the Tehuantepec
region beginning Tue morning, and gale-force winds with seas to 9
ft by Tue evening. Gales and building seas to 12 ft will continue
to affect the region through Wed evening. Afteward, winds will
gradually diminish and reach gentle to moderate speeds Thu in the
afternoon. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W 
to 08N82W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 06N110W to
05N126W beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 03N to 10N between 96W and 120W, and from 04N to 07N 
between 125W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore 
waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure northwest of the area 
near 32N125W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient
with lower pressure over Mexico, which is generating gentle to 
moderate NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters,
except N of Punta Eugenia where NW winds are fresh to strong with
seas to 8 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are moderate to
fresh with seas to 4 ft N of 15N. In the Gulf of California,
winds are light to gentle with seas to 2 ft. Elsewhere in the SW
Mexican offshores, winds are light and variable with seas in the
3-5 ft range in NW swell.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Gulf of 
Mexico tonight into Tue night. Strong high pressure and associate
ridging will build in the wake of the front, which will lead to 
the next Tehuantepec gap wind event. Northerly winds will funnel 
through the Chivela Pass and lead to fresh to strong N to NE 
winds in the Tehuantepec region beginning Tue morning, and gale- 
force winds with seas to 9 ft by Tue evening. Gales and building 
seas to 12 ft will continue to affect the region through Wed 
evening. Afteward, winds will gradually diminish and reach gentle
to moderate speeds Thu in the afternoon. Fresh to strong NW 
winds and seas to 9 ft over the waters off the Baja California 
peninsula N of Punta Eugenia will diminish by Mon morning. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the rest of the Baja 
California offshores will diminish to light to gentle speeds Thu 
morning. Otherwise, light to gentle NW winds in the southern half
of the Gulf of California will reach moderate speeds again Tue 
through Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. The latest scatterometer data also
depicted moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 
ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the region. 
Seas range from 3-5 ft elsewhere across the offshore waters in 
mostly S swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through most of the week. Strong winds will 
expand in coverage by Wed through Thu morning with rough seas. 
Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through 
most of the week. Rough seas in northerly swell will start 
affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Wed 
through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the
Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A low pressure system west of the area has a cold front
associated with it, extending in the far NW corners of the
forecast waters from 30N137W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong winds
continue around the front, with scatterometer data showing it N
of 23N and W of 132W. Seas range 8 to 14 ft, with the 12 ft seas
and greater noted N of 25N and W of 135W. West of this system, a
1023 mb high pressure is located north of the area near 32N126W.
This feature is creating a pressure gradient with the ITCZ which
is supporting moderate to fresh winds. Scatterometer showed these
winds from the ITCZ to 15N and W of 115W. North of 15N under the
high pressure, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas range 6 to 10 
ft in this region. South of the ITCZ, S to SW winds are gentle 
to moderate from the SE with seas in the 6 to 10 ft W of 110W and
4 to 6 ft E of 110W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will
lift north of the forecast waters and merge with another system.
Strong winds will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight into 
early Mon. Seas will subside below 12 ft tonight, however will 
stay above 8 ft through Wed as a new front enters the NW forecast
waters by Mon night. Looking ahead, the new low will meander 
just W of the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will 
increase the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to 
develop fresh to strong SW wind and very rough seas to near 15 
ft Wed night through Thu evening.

$$
Ramos