000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142149
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N83W
to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 06N120W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 95W and 122W and from 04N to 07N between 129W and 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore 
waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure northwest of the area 
near 32N126W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient 
with lower pressure over Mexico, which is generating gentle to 
moderate NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters N of 
Cabo San Lazaro. South of Cabo San Lazaro, winds are light to
gentle. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft within NW swell over the
Baja California offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, 
light to gentle NW winds are ongoing across the basin with seas 
to 3 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds have diminished to
gentle to moderate with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere in the SW 
Mexican offshores, winds are light and variable with seas in the 
3-6 ft range in mixed swell.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of 
Mexico on Tue. This will cause a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event with gales very likely Tue night through Wed night along 
with rough seas. The strong winds will diminish by Thu along with
subsiding seas. Moderate NW winds over the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula N of Cabo San Lazaro will increase to fresh 
to strong N of Punta Eugenia this evening and seas will build to 
8 ft, diminishing by Mon morning. Winds over the rest of the 
Baja California region will remain in the moderate to fresh 
speeds Mon through Wed night. Winds in the southern half of the 
Gulf of California will reach moderate speeds again Tue evening 
through Wed morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. The latest scatterometer data also
depicted moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 
ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the region. 
Seas range from 3-5 ft elsewhere across the offshore waters in 
mostly S swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through most of the week. Strong winds will 
expand in coverage by Wed through Thu morning with rough seas. 
Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through 
most of the week. Rough seas in northerly swell will start 
affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Wed 
through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the
Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A low pressure system west of the area has a cold front
associated with it, extending in the far NW corners of the
forecast waters from 30N137W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong winds
continue around the front, with scatterometer data showing it N
of 23N and W of 132W. Seas range 8 to 14 ft, with the 12 ft seas
and greater noted N of 25N and W of 135W. West of this system, a
1023 mb high pressure is located north of the area near 32N126W.
This feature is creating a pressure gradient with the ITCZ which
is supporting moderate to fresh winds. Scatterometer showed these
winds from the ITCZ to 15N and W of 115W. North of 15N under the
high pressure, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas range 6 to 10 
ft in this region. South of the ITCZ, S to SW winds are gentle 
to moderate from the SE with seas in the 6 to 10 ft W of 110W and
4 to 6 ft E of 110W. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will
lift north of the forecast waters and merge with another system.
Strong winds will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight into 
early Mon. Seas will subside below 12 ft tonight, however will 
stay above 8 ft through Wed as a new front enters the NW forecast
waters by Mon night. Looking ahead, the new low will meander 
just W of the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will 
increase the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to 
develop fresh to strong SW wind and very rough seas to near 15 
ft Wed night through Thu evening.

$$
AReinhart