000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 06N120W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 08N between 94W and 104W and from 04N to 08N between 116W and
133W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore
waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure west of the area near
29N126W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with
lower pressure over Mexico, which is generating moderate to
locally fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters 
N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft within NW 
swell over this region. In the Gulf of California, light to
gentle NW winds are ongoing across the basin with seas to 3 ft. 
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N winds are noted 
with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds 
are light and variable with seas in the 3-6 ft range in mixed
swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon. Moderate NW winds 
over the waters off the Baja California peninsula N of Cabo San 
Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia this 
evening and seas will build to 8 ft, diminishing by Mon morning.
Winds over the Baja California region will remain in the 
moderate to fresh speeds Mon through Wed night. Winds in the 
southern half of the Gulf of California will reach moderate 
speeds again Tue evening through Wed morning. Looking ahead, a 
strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Tue. This 
will cause a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very 
likely Tue night through Wed night along with very rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo 
with seas to 5 ft. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of
Panama with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across 
the rest of the region. Seas range from 3-5 ft elsewhere across
the offshore waters in mostly S swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo today through most of the week. Strong winds
will expand in size by Wed with rough seas. Moderate N to NE 
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through most of the week. 
Rough seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters Wed through Wed night due to a 
strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A low pressure system west of the area has a cold front
associated with it, extending in the far NW corners of the
forecast waters near 30N140W. Widespread strong to near gale
force winds are noted with with this system. Seas range 9 to 14
ft, with the 12 ft seas and greater noted N of 25N and W of
135W. West of this system, a 1023 mb high pressure is noted near
30N126W. This feature is creating a pressure gradient with the
ITCZ which is supporting moderate to fresh winds from the ITCZ to
20N and W of 110W. North of 20N under the high pressure, winds 
are gentle to moderate. Seas range 6 to 9 ft in this region. 
South of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with 
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will
lift north of the forecast waters. Strong winds will diminish to
moderate to fresh tonight into early Mon. Seas will subside 
below 12 ft tonight, however will stay above 8 ft through Wed as 
a new front enters the NW forecast waters Mon night. Looking 
ahead, the new low will meander just W of the area while 
deepening before shifting NE. This will increase the pressure 
gradient over the NW forecast waters to develop fresh to strong 
SW wind and rough seas to 16 ft Wed night through Thu evening.

$$
AReinhart