000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140921
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

NW Waters in the Eastern Pacific: A strong low pressure system 
west of the area is bringing strong to gale-force SE winds to 
the waters N of 24N and W of 134W as indicated by recent
scatterometer data. Seas currently range between 8 to 15 ft 
in mixed swell. The system will continue to affect the same 
region through today as it gradually lifts northward before 
merging with another low to the northwest. This will support the 
continuation of S to SE gale winds through this morning. Strong winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh tonight into early Mon. Seas 
will subside below 12 ft tonight, however will stay above 8 ft 
through Wed as a new cold front enter the NW forecast waters Mon 
night. Looking ahead, the new merged low will meander just W of 
the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will increase 
the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to develop 
fresh to strong SW wind and rough seas to 16 ft Wed night through
Thu evening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 06N91W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N91W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 93W and 
114W, and from 02N to 08N between 127W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore
waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure NW of the area near 
31N126W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with 
lower pressure over Mexico, which is generating moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters 
N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas range between 5 to 7 ft within NW 
swell over this region. In the Gulf of California, moderate to
locally fresh NW winds are ongoing from the central to the 
entrance of the Gulf with seas ranging from 3 to 4 ft. In the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N winds are pulsing tonight with
seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere in the SW Mexican offshores, winds are
light and variable with seas in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish Sun afternoon. Moderate NW winds over 
the waters off the Baja California peninsula N of Cabo San Lazaro 
will increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia Sun afternoon
and seas will build to 8 ft. Winds over this region will then
remain in the moderate to locallyy fresh speeds Mon through Wed.
Winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will become
light to gentle on Sun and reach moderate speeds again Tue
evening through Wed. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will 
move across the Gulf of Mexico Tue. This will cause a Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very likely Tue night 
through Wed night along with very rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas
to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the 
region, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Seas 
are 6 ft within mixed swell in the lee of the Galapagos Islands 
and range from 3-5 ft elsewhere in mostly S swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the 
Gulf of Papagayo Sun morning through Mon morning. Strong winds 
will return by Tue night and continue through most of the week
along with rough seas. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through most of the week. Rough seas in northerly
swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters Wed through Wed night due to a strong gap wind 
event forecast for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale 
Warning for the NW waters in the Eastern Pacific.

Outside of the strong low pressure system mentioned in the
Special Features section, a 1023 mb high pressure is centered N 
of the area near 31N126W. The pressure gradient between the area 
of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of the ITCZ to 
15N, and W of 123W. Seas in this region range between 7 to 9 ft 
in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 6 
to 8 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 15N between 120W and 134W. 
South of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with
seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will 
continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually 
lifts northward before merging with another low to the northwest.
This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE 
winds, forecast to reach gale-force tonight and diminish by early
Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun night 
into early Mon. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into 
early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will
subside below 12 ft by Sun night, however will stay above 8 ft 
through Wed as a new cold front enter the NW forecast waters Mon 
night. Looking ahead, the new merged low will meander just W of 
the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will increase 
the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to develop 
fresh to strong SW wind and rough seas to 16 ft Wed night through
Thu evening.

$$
Ramos