000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW Waters in the Eastern Pacific: A strong low pressure system west of the area is bringing fresh to strong SE winds to the waters N of 21N and W of 135W. Seas currently range 8 to 14 ft within mixed wind waves and mixed swell. The highest seas are W of 137W as suggested by recent altimeter data. The system will continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually lifts northward before merging with another low to the northwest. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force tonight and diminish by early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun night into early Mon. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night, however will stay above 8 ft through Wed as a new cold front enter the NW forecast waters Mon night. Looking ahead, the new merged low will meander just W of the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will increase the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to develop fresh to strong SW wind and rough seas to 16 ft Wed night through Thu evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 06N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 81W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure NW of the area near 31N128W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with lower pressure over Mexico. Scatterometer shows moderate to locally fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters due to this pressure gradient. Seas range 6 to 8 ft within NW swell. In the Gulf of California, moderate NW winds are ongoing from the central to the entrance of the Gulf with seas ranging from 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf with slight seas. Scatterometer also depicted strong winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 5 ft. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds. Seas off the SW Mexico offshore waters range 5 to 7 ft within NW swell. Seas range 3 to 4 ft across the rest of the waters within mixed NW and S swell. For the forecast, strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this evening. Meanwhile, moderate NW winds over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue through Sun morning. Winds will increase fresh to strong by Sun afternoon with 8 ft seas N of Punta Eugenia. Winds in the Gulf of California will become moderate to locally fresh by Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will cause a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very likely Tue night through Wed night and very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer depicted moderate winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the region. Seas are in 6 ft within mixed swell in the lee of the Galapagos Islands and range 3-5 ft elsewhere in mostly S swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo Sun morning through Mon morning. Strong winds will return by Tue night and continue through most of the week along with rough seas. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through most of the week. Rough seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Wed through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the NW waters in the Eastern Pacific. Outside of the strong low pressure system mentioned in the Special Features section, a 1023 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 31N126W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of the ITCZ to 15N, and W of 123W. Seas in this region range between 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 15N between 120W and 134W. South of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure system will continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually lifts northward before merging with another low to the northwest. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force tonight and diminish by early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun night into early Mon. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night, however will stay above 8 ft through Wed as a new cold front enter the NW forecast waters Mon night. Looking ahead, the new merged low will meander just W of the area while deepening before shifting NE. This will increase the pressure gradient over the NW forecast waters to develop fresh to strong SW wind and rough seas to 16 ft Wed night through Thu evening. $$ Ramos