000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support a brief period of gale force winds this morning with seas building to near 8 ft. With a progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale force in the next few hours. NW Waters in the Eastern Pacific: A strong low pressure system west of the area is bringing fresh to strong SE winds to the waters N of 20N and W of 130W. Seas currently range 8 to 12 ft within mixed wind waves and mixed swell. The system will continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually lifts northward. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force by tonight through early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Mon night. Currently, seas in the 8 to 12 ft range are ongoing across the NW waters, N of 20N and W of 130W. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Seas will stay above 8 ft through the middle of the week before the next incoming system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N91W. The ITCZ extends from 07N81W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 80W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure NW of the area near 32N128W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with lower pressure over Mexico, producing gentle to moderate N to NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is also impacting the waters with 6 to 8 ft seas within NW swell. In the Gulf of California, moderate NW winds are ongoing from the central basin to the entrance of the Gulf with seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northern Gulf with slight seas. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds are ongoing with 3 to 4 ft seas in mixed NW and S swell. For the forecast, a brief period of gale force winds and rough seas is likely this morning in the Tehuantepec region. Gales are forecast to end in a few hours. Meanwhile, moderate NW winds over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue through Mon, increasing to fresh to strong by Sun night with 8 ft seas. The NW swell with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft today. Winds in the Gulf of California will become moderate to locally fresh by Mon night into Tue. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very likely Tue night through Wed night and very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the region. Seas are in 6 ft within mixed swell in the lee of the Galapagos Islands and range 3-5 ft elsewhere in mostly S swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight through Mon morning. Strong winds will return by Wed into Wed night with rough seas. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight through most of the week. Rough seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Tue night through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the NW waters in the Eastern Pacific. Outside of the strong low pressure system, a 1023 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 32N128W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of the ITCZ to 24N and W of 110W. Seas in this region range between 8 to 9 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 6 to 9 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 24N between 120W and 130W. South of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the system will continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually lifts northward. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force by tonight through early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Mon night. Currently, seas in the 8 to 12 ft range are ongoing across the NW waters, N of 20N and W of 130W. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Seas will stay above 8 ft through the middle of the week before the next incoming system. $$ AReinhart