000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support a brief period of gale force winds this morning with seas building to near 8 ft. With a progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale force in the next few hours. NW Waters in the Eastern Pacific: A strong low pressure system west of the area is bringing fresh to strong SE winds to the waters N of 20N and W of 130W. The system will continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually lifts northward. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force by tonight through early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Mon night. Currently, seas in the 8 to 12 ft range are ongoing across the NW waters, N of 20N and W of 130W. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Seas will stay above 8 ft through the middle of the week before the next incoming system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N91W. The ITCZ extends from 07N81W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scatterd moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 80W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure NW of the area near 31N128W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with lower pressure over Mexico, producing gentle to moderate N to NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is also impacting the waters with 7 to 9 ft seas. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing from the central to the entrance of the gulf with seas ranging from 3 to 5 ft. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds are ongoing with 3 to 4 ft seas in NW swell. For the forecast, a brief period of gale force winds and rough seas is likely this morning in the Tehuantepec region. Gales are forecast to end by the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, moderate NW winds over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue through Mon, increasing to fresh to strong by Sun night with 8 ft seas. The NW swell with seas to 9 ft will subside below 8 ft today. Fresh winds in the Gulf of California will become moderate to fresh by Tue. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very likely Tue night through Wed night and very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the region, except for locally moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, highest S of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night through Mon morning. Strong winds will return by Wed into Wed night with rough seas. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Sat night through most of the week. Rough seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Tue night through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the NW waters in the Eastern Pacific. A strong low pressure system west of the area is bringing fresh to strong SE winds to the waters N of 20N and W of 130W. Currently, seas in the 8 to 12 ft range are ongoing across these NW waters. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 31N127W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 115W. Seas in this region range between 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 7-9 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 20N between 120W and 130W. South of the ITCZ, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the strong low pressure system will continue to affect the NW forecast waters through Sun as it gradually lifts northward before merging with a larger system to the NW by Sun evening. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force by tonight through early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh by Mon night. Seas will build to near 16 ft by tonight into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Seas will stay above 8 ft through the middle of the week before the next incoming system. $$ AKR