000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sat. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support a brief period of gale force winds early Saturday morning with seas building to near 8 ft. With a progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale force by Sat afternoon. NW Waters in the Eastern Pacific: A strong low pressure system west of the area is bringing fresh to strong SE winds to the waters N of 20N and W of 136W. The system will continue to affect the same region through Sun as it gradually lifts northward before merging with a larger system to the NW by Sun evening. This will support the continuation of fresh to strong S to SE winds, forecast to reach gale-force by Sat night through early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to gentle to fresh by Mon night. Currently, seas in the 8 to 11 ft range are ongoing across the NW waters, N of 20N and W of 136W. Seas will build to near 16 ft by Sat night into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Seas will stay above 8 ft through early next week before the next incoming system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 05N100W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 110W and 129W and from 03N to 07N between 91W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure NW of the area near 32N127W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with lower pressure over Mexico, producing moderate to locally fresh winds over the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is also impacting the waters with seas 8 to 10 ft, highest N of Cabo Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, scatterometer today depicted fresh to strong winds in the central and southern basin with gentle to moderate winds in the northern basin. Seas range 3 to 5 ft. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas within mixed NW to S swell. For the forecast, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will begin tonight, with a brief period of gale force winds possible Sat morning and seas to 7 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue through Mon, increasing to strong by Sun night with 8 ft seas. The NW swell with seas to 10 ft will subside below 8 ft by Sat. Fresh to strong winds across the southern half of the Gulf of California will diminish by Sat morning. Winds will become moderate to fresh by Tue. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very likely Tue night through Wed night and very rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the region. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, including SW of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night through Mon morning. Strong winds will return by Wed into Wed night with rough seas. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Sat night through most of the week. Rough seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Tue night through Wed night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the NW waters in the Eastern Pacific. A 1029 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 32N127W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of 110W. Seas in this region range 8 to 9 ft within mixed swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 7-10 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 25N between 124W and 133W with seas 6 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ, S to SW gentle to moderate winds are present with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly, bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. As the system approaches 140W, S to SE winds will increase to gale force by Sat night through early Sun morning. Winds will diminish to gentle to fresh by Mon night. Meanwhile, seas 8 to 10 ft are already across the NW waters, N of 20N and W of 136W. Seas will build to near 16 ft by Sat night into early Sun morning where the strongest winds will occur. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Seas will stay above 8 ft through early next week before the next incoming system. $$ Ramos