912 AXPZ20 KNHC 121627 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico today and Sat. High pressure will build across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support a brief period of gale force winds early Saturday morning. Seas will build to near 8 ft by Sat morning. With a progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale force later Sat morning into Sat afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N95W to 06N100W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 110W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the Baja California offshore waters anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure NW of the area near 33N128W. This is leading to an associated pressure gradient with lower pressure over Mexico, producing moderate to fresh winds over the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is also impacting the waters with seas 8 to 11 ft, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, winds are fresh to strong in the central basin with gentle to moderate winds in the northern basin. Seas range 3 to 5 ft. Across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas within mixed NW to S swell. For the forecast, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected tonight, with a brief period of gale force winds possible Sat morning with seas to 7 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds over the waters off the Baja California peninsula will continue through Mon, increasing to locally fresh Sun into Mon. The NW swell with seas to 11 ft will subside to around 8 ft by Sat and continue through Mon. Fresh to strong winds can be expected over the southern half of the Gulf of California through Sat morning. Winds will become moderate to fresh by Mon evening through Tue evening. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. This will usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event with gales very likely Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the region. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, including SW of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night through Tue night. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama Sat night through Tue. Rough seas in northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Tue night due to a strong gap wind event forecast for the Tehuantepec region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 33N128W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades N of the ITCZ to 26N and W of 110W. Seas in this region range 8 to 10 ft within mixed swell. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 7-10 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 26N between 125W and 135W with seas 6 to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ, S to SW gentle to moderate winds are present with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly, bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing strong to near gale-force southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast region today through Sun. This system will usher in a set of NW swell, with seas building to 10 to 15 ft Sat night, with 12 ft seas continuing to Sun night. $$ AReinhart