000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121555
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico today and Sat. High pressure will build 
across the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of the front. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support a brief period of gale force winds early Saturday 
morning. Seas will build to near 8 ft by Sat morning. With a 
progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale force
later Sat morning into Sat afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N95W to 06N100W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 110W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The associated pressure gradient between surface ridging over the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California and low pressure over
W Mexico is producing fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in 
NW swell along the waters off Baja California. Moderate to fresh
NW winds, and seas to 5 ft, are over the southern half of the Gulf
of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are 
elsewhere over the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, fresh NW winds over the waters off the Baja 
California peninsula will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds 
this afternoon and increase back to fresh to locally strong N of 
Punta Eugenia Sat night into Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds 
can be expected over the southern half of the Gulf of California 
into Sat morning, becoming moderate to fresh again Mon evening 
through Tue evening. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is expected on Sat, with a brief period of gale force 
winds possible during the morning hours. Looking ahead, a 
stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early 
next week. This will usher in another Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind event, with gales very likely Tue night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo while light to gentle
winds are ongoing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, 
including SW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, increasing to fresh to strong 
speeds Sat night into Tue night. Moderate N to NE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Panama Sun night through Tue. Rough seas in 
northerly swell will start affecting the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters Tue night due to a strong gap wind event
forecast for the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 33N129W. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E trades, and seas of 7-8 ft, N of the ITCZ
to 21N and W of 115W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, and seas
of 7-10 ft are ongoing elsewhere N of 21N between the Baja
California offshores and 140W.

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly,
bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. 
A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing increasing
southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast region
today through early next week. This system will usher in a set 
of NW swell, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft on Sat, and 
peaking near 13 ft on Sun morning. 

$$
AReinhart