000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112035
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico Fri and Sat. High pressure will build across 
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of the front. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support a brief period of gale force winds Saturday morning. With
a progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale
force by Sat night. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 05N101W to 07N119W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N119W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 01N to 06N E of 89W, from 08N to 11N 
between 110W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N between 128W and 
132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW 
swell across the waters off Baja California Norte. Moderate to 
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail off Baja California Sur.
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of
5-7 ft, are over the northern Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or less, are over the remainder 
of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will prevail over the
waters off the Baja California peninsula through tonight. Fresh 
to strong winds can be expected over the Gulf of California into 
Sat. The next gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec 
region on Sat, with a brief period of gale force winds possible. 
Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move across the Gulf of
Mexico early next week. This will usher in another Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event, with gales possible.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with gentle to 
moderate winds over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except SW of the
Galapagos Islands where seas are reaching near 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, increasing to fresh to strong 
speeds Sat night into Sun. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 5 ft 
range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 6 ft
will persist the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 32N131W. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E trades, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ 
and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, 
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly,
bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. 
A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing increasing
southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast region
tonight into Fri. This system will usher in a set of NW swell, 
with seas building to 8 to 11 ft on Sat, and peaking near 12 ft 
on Sun morning. 

$$
AL