569 
AXPZ20 KNHC 111439
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico Fri and Sat. High pressure will build across 
the eastern slopes of Mexico in the wake of the front. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
support a brief period of gale force winds Saturday morning. With
a progressive weather pattern, winds will diminish below gale
force by Sat night. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N93W to 08N120W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 94W, from 05N to 10N 
between 110W and 120W, and from 04N to 06N between 130W and 
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft in NW 
swell across the waters off Baja California Norte. Mainly 
moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail off Baja California 
Sur. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are over
the northern Gulf of California, with light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3 ft or less, over the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and NW swell will 
prevail over the waters off Baja California Norte and N of Cabo 
San Lazaro through late today, with seas peaking near 12 ft. 
Fresh to strong winds can be expected over the Gulf of California
into Sat. The next gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec
region on Sat, with a brief period of gale force winds possible.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with gentle
to moderate winds over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except SW of 
the Galapagos Islands where seas are reaching near 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, increasing to fresh to strong 
speeds Sat night into Sun. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 5 ft 
range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 6 ft
will persist the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 34N132W. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NE to E trades, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ 
and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, 
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly,
bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. 
A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing increasing
southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast region
tonight into Fri. This system will usher in a set of NW swell, 
with seas building to 8 to 11 ft on Sat, and peaking near 12 ft 
on Sun morning. 

$$
AL