000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110317
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N100W to 08N118W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N118W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 84W and 91W, from 
04N to 07N between 110W and 113W, and from 05N to 08N between
125W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft
across the waters off Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh 
NW winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail off Baja California Sur. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 
ft or less, are found over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and NW swell will
continue to affect the waters off Baja California Norte and N of
Cabo San Lazaro through late Thu. Seas are expected to peak near
12 ft offshore Baja California Norte on Thu. Fresh to strong 
winds will develop over the Gulf of California Thu morning into 
Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event is expected in the 
Tehuantepec region on Sat, with gale force winds possible. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted across the offshore 
forecast waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except SW of the
Galapagos Islands where seas are reaching near 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, increasing to fresh to strong 
speeds Sat night into Sun. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 5 ft 
range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 6 ft
will persist the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 35N134W. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE to E trades, and seas of 6-9 ft, N of the ITCZ and W of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly,
bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. 
A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing 
increasing southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast 
region Thu night into Fri. This system will usher in a set of NW
swell, with seas building to 8 to 11 ft late Fri, and peaking 
near 12 ft on Sat and Sun. 

$$
GR