339 
AXPZ20 KNHC 102019
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1940 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to 08N120W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 100W, and from 06N to
10N between 112W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weakening cold front is moving across the waters off Baja 
California Norte. Moderate to fresh NW winds, and seas of 6-8 ft,
prevail off Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 4-7 ft are over the waters off Baja California Sur. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft 
or less, are found over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front over the waters off 
Baja California Norte will move across the remainder of the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte tonight, followed by 
fresh to strong NW winds and NW swell. Seas are expected to peak 
near 12 ft offshore Baja California Norte on Thu. Fresh to strong
winds will develop over the Gulf of California Thu morning into 
Fri as the cold front moves across the area. Looking ahead, the 
next gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec region on Sat,
with gale force winds possible. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted across the offshore 
forecast waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except SW of the
Galapagos Islands where seas are reaching near 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh winds will 
prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, increasing to fresh to strong 
speeds Sat night into Sun. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 5 ft 
range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 6 ft
will persist the next couple of days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 34N134W. 
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh NE to E trades, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ and W
of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly,
bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. 
A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing 
increasing southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast 
region Thu night into Fri. This system will usher in a set of NW
swell, with seas with building to 8 to 11 ft late Fri, and
peaking near 12 ft on Sat and Sun. 

$$
AL