000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101450
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 08N119W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N119W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 02N to 07N E of 100W, and within 150 nm
N of the ITCZ between 119W and 135W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale
force, with fresh to strong winds, and seas to 8 ft, prevailing.
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds, and seas of
6-8 ft, off Baja California Norte. Light to gentle winds, and 
seas of 4-7 ft, are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas less than 2 ft, are found over 
the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds, and 
seas of 3-5 ft, are elsewhere over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, a dissipating cold front will move across the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte tonight, followed by 
fresh to strong NW winds and NW swell. Seas are expected to 
build to 12 ft offshore Baja California Norte on Thu. Fresh to 
strong winds will develop over the Gulf of California Thu 
morning into Fri as another weakening cold front moves across the
area. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event is expected in the 
Tehuantepec region on Sat, with gale force winds possible.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate or weaker winds, and seas of 4 to 6 ft, are noted 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas of
3 to 5 ft. Seas will subside to 2 to 4 ft Thu through Sat, 
except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 6 ft will 
persist. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds
in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night into Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 36N136W 
with a ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh NE to E trades, and seas of 7-10 ft, N of the ITCZ and W of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will weaken slightly,
bringing a slight decrease to the NE trades through Sat night. 
A low pressure system will pass NW of the area, bringing 
increasing southerly winds across the NW corner of the forecast 
region Thu night into Fri. This system will usher in a set of NW
swell, with seas with building to 8 to 11 ft late Fri, and
peaking near 12 ft on Sat. 

$$
AL