000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092015
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind a cold 
front over the Gulf of Mexico will force a pulse of northerly gap
winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, with strong
winds then continuing into Wed. Seas will reach 10 ft tonight. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N83W to 07N98W to 07N108W. The ITCZ continues from 07N108W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N 
to 08N between 92W and 107W and from 05N to 09N between 127W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Seas 
are 8 to 10 ft in long period NW swell. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds are noted across the Gulf of California S of 29N, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft. For the remainder of the waters, winds are 
moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 8 ft primarily in NW swell, 
except 3 to 5 ft in the Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, high pressure behind a cold front over the 
Gulf of Mexico will force short-lived gale-force northerly gap 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Wed.the NW swell 
impacting the waters west of Baja California will gradually 
diminish through tonight. A cold front will move across the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte Wed night, followed by 
fresh to strong NW winds and additional NW swell. Seas are 
expected to build to 12 ft Thu. High pressure over the U.S. Great
Basin will continue to support fresh to strong winds over most 
of the Gulf of California into tonight, then resume again Wed 
night into Sat. Looking ahead, more gap wind is expected in the 
Tehuantepec region on Sat. Winds are forecast to reach gale 
force, with seas likely building to 12 or 13 ft. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo and
downwind to about 88W, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere 
winds are moderate or weaker and seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail with 
seas of 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Thu through Sat, except
SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 5 ft will 
persist. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to fresh 
to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night through Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1033 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 33N134W 
with a ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing fresh NE 
to E trades from 15N to 24N west of 124W . Seas of 8 to 11 ft in
long period NW swell combined with NE wind waves dominate most 
of the waters N of 04N and W of 110W. 

For the forecast, as the high weakens slightly north of the area,
the NE trades will diminish some from through Sat night. Wed
night into Fri, expect increasing southerly winds across the NW 
corner of the forecast region with building seas of 8 to 11 ft. 
These marine conditions will be associated with a low pressure 
system moving NE west of 140W. 

$$
Konarik