163 
AXPZ20 KNHC 091535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure behind a cold 
front over the Gulf of Mexico will force a short-lived N gap wind
event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are anticipated to 
reach gale force tonight, then remain strong through Wed. Seas
will build to about 10 ft during this pulse of gale-force winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 07N100W to 07N115W. The ITCZ continues from 07N115W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N 
to 08N between 98W and 107W and from 05N to 08N between 126W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See Special Features Section above for details on a Gale Warning
for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds, with the exception of
fresh to locally strong winds in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia, 
including the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in 
long period NW swell. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted 
across the Gulf of California S of 29N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
primarily in NW swell, except 3 to 5 ft in the Tehuantepec 
region.

For the forecast, the NW swell event impacting the waters west 
of Baja California will gradually diminish through tonight. A 
cold front will move across the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte on Wed, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and
another swell event. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft on Thu.
High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to support
fresh to strong NW winds over most of the Gulf of California 
through tonight and resume again Thu into Sat. Looking ahead, 
gap winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region on Sat. Winds 
are forecast to reach gale force, with seas likely building to 12
or 13 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo and
downwind to about 88W, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 6 to
8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker 
and seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail 
with seas of 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Thu through Sat, 
except SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 5 ft will 
persist. Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to fresh 
to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night into Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1033 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 33N134W 
with a ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing fresh to 
strong NE to E trades from 15N to 24N west of 124W based on 
scatterometer data. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell 
combined with NE wind waves dominate most of the waters N of the 
Equator and W of 110W. 

For the forecast, as the high weakens slightly north of the area,
the NE trades will diminish some from tonight through Sat night.
By Thu night into Fri, expect increasing southerly winds across
the NW corner of the forecast region with building seas of 8 to
11 ft. These marine conditions will be associated with a low 
pressure system moving NE west of 140W. 

$$
Konarik