000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 05N95W to 10N108W to 06N120W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 09N between 100W and 106W and from 05N to 07N 
between 126W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate N to NE winds, with the exception of fresh to
locally strong winds in the vicinity of Punta Eugenia, including
the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in long 
period NW swell. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted across 
the Gulf of California S of 29N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 8 ft 
primarily in NW swell, except 3 to 5 ft in the Tehuantepec 
region.

For the forecast, the NW swell event impacting the waters west 
of Baja California will gradually diminish through tonight. A 
cold front will move across the offshore waters of Baja California
Norte on Wed, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and another 
swell event. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft on Thu. High 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to support fresh
to strong NW winds over most of the Gulf of California through 
tonight and resume again Thu into Sat. High pressure behind a 
cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will force a short-lived N 
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are anticipated
to reach strong to near gale force tonight and Wed. Looking ahead,
another gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec region on 
Sat. Winds are forecast to reach gale force, with seas likely 
building to 12 or 13 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 6 to
8 ft within these winds. Fresh N winds are observed over the 
Gulf of Panama to near 07N with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds 
are moderate or weaker and seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail with
seas of 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft Thu through Sat, except
SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas of 4 to 5 ft will persist.
Looking ahead, winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong
speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo Sat night into Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1033 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 33N134W 
with a ridge extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing fresh to 
strong NE to E trades from 15N to 24N west of 124W based on 
scatterometer data. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell 
combined with NE wind waves dominate most of the waters N of the 
Equator and W of 110W. Altimeter data confirmed the presence of 
these seas.

For the forecast, as the high weakens slightly north of the area,
the NE trades will diminish some from tonight through Sat night.
By Thu night into Fri, expect increasing southerly winds across
the NW corner of the forecast region with building seas of 8 to
11 ft. These marine conditions will be associated with a low 
pressure system moving NE west of 140W. 

$$
GR