769 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090314
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 06N90W to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 
08N110W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 09N between 100W and 105W and from from 10N to
13N between 107W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh northerly winds. Seas are 8 to 11 ft
in long period NW swell. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted
across the entire Gulf of California with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 8 ft
primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the NW swell event impacting the waters west 
of Baja California will gradually diminish through Tue night. 
Building high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to
support fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California 
through Tue night and resume again Thu into Sat. A weak cold 
front will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on Wed,
though the NW to N winds behind the front on Wed and Thu should 
only be fresh to strong. Beginning tomorrow night, high pressure 
behind a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will force a short- 
lived N gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are 
anticipated to reach strong to near gale force on Tue night and 
Wed. Looking ahead, another gap wind event is expected in the
Tehuantepec region on Sat. Winds are forecast to reach gale 
force, with seas likely building to 12 or 13 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Fresh N winds are observed 
over the Gulf of Panama to about 07N with seas to 5 ft.  
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over Central America is forcing 
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Fresh N winds over 
the Gulf of Panama will likewise weaken tonight. Elsewhere,
gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail with seas of 3 to 5
ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft by Thu. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1032 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 33N132W 
with a ridge extending southeastward to 17N105W. The moderate 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades 
from 15N to 22N west of 130W based on scatterometer data. Seas 
of 8 to 11 ft in long period NW swell combined with NE wind 
waves dominate most of the waters N of the Equator and E of 
105W. Altimeter data confirmed the presence of these seas.

For the forecast, as the high weakens slightly north of the area,
the NE trades will diminish some from Tue night into Sat night. 
By Thu night the large NW swell will diminish below 8 ft over 
most of the forecast waters. A new NW swell event should begin 
over waters east of 115W on Thu, reach down to 20N on Fri, and
diminish on Sat.

$$
GR