000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081954
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Area of High Seas: Very large, 14-16 s period NW swell are
occurring north of 25N east of 125W. Peak seas are around 14 ft
near 30N120W. The very large swell will continue through tonight
before gradually diminishing tomorrow.

Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at  
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 06N92W. The ITCZ extends from 06N92W to 10N112W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
09N-13N between 108W-115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for more details associated with
the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters.

Fresh NW winds are occurring west of the Baja California 
peninsula and over the central and N Gulf of California. 
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 12-14 ft north 
of 25N in NW swell, 8-11 ft in the waters south of Baja, and 5-7 
ft south of SE Mexico. 

For the forecast, very large long-period NW swell impacting the 
waters west of Baja California Norte will gradually diminish 
through Tue night. Building high pressure over the U.S. Great 
Basin will force fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of 
California through Tue night and resume again Thu into Sat. A 
weak cold front will reach the waters west of Baja California 
Norte on Wed, though the NW to N winds behind the front on Wed 
and Thu should only be fresh to strong. Beginning tomorrow night,
high pressure behind a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will 
force a short- lived N gap wind event over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds are anticipated to reach strong to near gale 
on Tue night and Wed. Looking ahead, a gale-force Tehuantepecer 
may occur beginning on Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Papagayo region with seas 8-9 ft. Fresh N winds are observed 
over the Gulf of Panama this morning with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker and seas 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over Central America is forcing 
fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region 
through tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Fresh N winds over 
the Gulf of Panama will likewise weaken tonight. Elsewhere, winds
and seas should be quiescent through the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for more details associated with
the large NW swell and the strong trade winds.

A 1033 mb high is centered near 33N132W north of our area with 
ridging extending southeastward to 17N105W. The moderate 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the 
ITCZ are forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades 08N-27N west of 
120W. Large NW swell along with NE wind waves are forcing seas of
8-12 ft over all waters west of around 105W.

For the forecast, as the high weakens slightly north of the area,
the NE trades will diminish some from Tue night into Sat night. 
By Thu night the large NW swell will diminish below 8 ft over 
most of the forecast waters. A new NW swell event should begin 
over waters east of 115W on Thu, reach down to 20N on Fri, and
diminish on Sat.

$$
Landsea