523 AXPZ20 KNHC 081603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: A dissipating cold front extending across S Gulf of California to the waters west of Baja California Sur will dissipate this evening. Very large, 14-16 s period NW swell are occurring north of 25N east of 127W. At 1300 UTC, an altimeter overpass measured seas up to 14 ft near 30N118W. While the fresh NW to N winds will diminish this evening, the very large swell will continue through tonight before gradually diminishing tomorrow. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 05N86W. The ITCZ extends from 05N86W to 08N115W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N between 108W-112W and from 05N-08N west of 1135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters. A dissipating cold front extends across S Gulf of California to the waters west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the front west of the Baja California peninsula and over the central and N Gulf of California. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 12-15 ft north of 25N in NW swell, 8-11 ft in the waters south of Baja, and 6-8 ft south of SE Mexico. For the forecast, the dissipating cold front will dissipate this evening. While the fresh NW to N winds will diminish this evening as well, large NW swell will continue through tomorrow. A new cold front will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on Wed, though the NW to N winds behind the front on Wed and Thu should only be fresh to strong. Building high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will force fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California through Tue night and resume again Thu into Fri night. A weak Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is anticipated for Tue night into Wed morning with fresh to strong N winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 8-9 ft. Fresh N winds are observed over the Gulf of Panama this morning with 6-8 ft seas. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker and seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue through tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama will likewise weaken tonight. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiescent. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. A 1030 mb high is centered near 34N133W north of our area with ridging extending southeastward to 15N105W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the ITCZ are forcing fresh to strong NE trades 08N-27N west of 120W. Large NW swell along with NE wind waves are forcing seas of 8-12 ft over all waters west of 105W. For the forecast, as the high weakens slightly north of the area, the NE trades will diminish some from Tue night into Fri night. By Thu night the large NW swell will diminish below 8 ft over most of the forecast waters. A new NW swell event should begin over waters west of 120W on Thu into Fri. $$ Landsea