834 AXPZ20 KNHC 080904 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: Fresh to strong NW to N winds following a cold front moving southward through the central Gulf of California, central Baja California, and the adjacent offshore waters will continue to produce significant waves that will interact with ongoing long period NW swell, and maintain large and very rough combined seas in excess of 12 ft across the Baja California waters extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands, and westward to 128W through early this morning. These seas of 12 ft and greater will then reduce in areal coverage to the Baja waters N of 24N and westward to 126W through Mon afternoon before subsiding below 12 ft Mon evening. Combined seas will persist at 9 to 11 ft as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands early Mon through Mon evening then remain 8 to 10 ft into mid week. Looking ahead, seas across this area will subside significantly Tue through Wed, just as a new round of fresh swell of 8 to 14 ft moves into the waters off Baja California, north of Punta Eugenia, Wed afternoon through Thu. Farther west, 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 35N135W, with an associated broad ridge extending S and SE across the regional waters W of 115W. This pattern continues to support a large area of fresh trade winds to the south of the ridge, mainly from 06N to 27N west of 125W as depicted by recent satellite scatterometer wind data. The associated wind generated seas are interacting with long period NW swell propagating through the region, resulting in a large area of rough to very rough seas west of 105W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed peak seas of 12-14 ft from 06N to 17N between 120W and 135W. The fresh trade winds will persist through the upcoming week, but the swell will gradually decay, allowing combined seas to subside to below 12 ft across this area by Mon morning, and then gradually subside to near 8 ft by Thu night. The exception to this will be the area north of 20N and east of 127W, where a new round of fresh winds and large swell will accompany the next cold front moving into Baja California. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N82W to 04N89W to 08N117W to 05.5N135W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 10.5N between 106W and 124W and from 06N to 08N W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters. A cold front has continued to move southward and extends across the central Gulf of California and central Baja Peninsula, where it enters the Pacific waters near 26N112W and extends across the offshore waters to beyond 24N120W. Recent satellite scatterometer wind data showed W-NW winds as high as 27 kt just north of the front across the central Gulf, where seas are estimated at 5-7 ft. Moderate westerly gap winds were depicted south of the front across the remainder of the Gulf waters, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Fresh to strong N-NW to N winds follow the front across the Baja offshore waters and out to 120W, where seas are 9 to 14 ft, and 15-16 ft farther N off of Baja Norte. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds prevail elsewhere S of the front to the Revillagigedo Islands and to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas south of the front are 8 to 13 ft in NW swell. A small area of strong gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the N of 15N. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas persist elsewhere across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. For the forecast, the cold front across central Baja and the Gulf of California will continue to move southward and gradually dissipate across Baja Sur and the adjacent waters Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds behind the front will gradually diminish tonight through Mon, but large combined seas will persist off Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish modestly and become more northerly overnight through Mon. Winds and seas off Baja California Norte will increase again Wed night through Thu associated with the next cold front moving into the area. Farther south, strong to near- gale force gap winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night related to high pressure building north of the area behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region have expanded offshore to near 90W tonight. Seas have recently built to 7 to 8 ft offshore there. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are across the Gulf of Panama, and extent southward to 04.5N. Combined seas are likely 5 to 7 ft there, in a combination of northerly wind waves and long period SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. For the forecast, NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight through Mon, with seas building 8 to 9 ft, then winds will diminish through early Tue. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. A weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Outside of the fresh trade winds and large NW swell, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail between 25N and 30N and west of 120W. The NW swell is producing seas 8 to 14 ft in this area. See the Special Features section for more information. East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 6 to 8 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will drift slowly NE through Tue night, then begin to shift N and weaken through Thu. Fresh winds across the trade wind zone will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W Mon night through Tue. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone west of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft Mon morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the week as the high pressure north of the area weakens and lifts N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and continue to subside through Wed. Conditions will improve considerably across the basin later this week. $$ Stripling