984 AXPZ20 KNHC 080332 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front continues to move southward through the Gulf of California and Pacific offshore waters of Baja California. The front has recently moved south of the Tiburon Basin inside the Gulf, and just south of Punta Eugenia across the Pacific offshore waters. Gale-force westerly winds occurring ahead of the front this afternoon are now more W-NW and have diminished below gale-force, and the Gale Warning had ended. Strongest winds are now north of the front, NW to NW at 25 to 30 kt across the Tiburon Basin, where seas are 6-8 ft. Winds and seas will diminish tonight as the front continues to move south and weaken. However, fresh to strong N-NW winds are expected to persist across the Gulf to the S of 29N through Tue evening as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Large Area of High Seas: Strong N-NW winds following this front moving through Baja California and adjacent offshore waters will continue to produce significant waves that will interact with ongoing long period NW swell, and maintain large and very rough combined seas in excess of 12 ft across the Baja California waters extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands, and westward to 130W through early tonight, then across the Baja waters N of 25N and westward to 126W through late Mon before subsiding below 12 ft. Combined seas will persist at 9 to 11 ft as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands later tonight through Mon evening then remain 8 to 10 ft into mid week. Looking ahead, these wave heights will subside just as a new round of fresh swell of 8 to 12 ft moves into the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, Wed afternoon through Thu. Farther west, 1029 mb high pressure is centered near 34N135W. This pattern continues to support a broad area of fresh trade winds to the south of the ridge, mainly from 05N to 25N west of 120W. The associated wind generated seas are interacting with long period NW swell propagating through the region, resulting in a large area of rough to very rough seas west of 105W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed peak seas of 13-14 ft from 07N to 18N to the W of 132W. The fresh trade winds will persist through the upcoming week, but the swell will gradually decay allowing combined seas to subside over most of the area to below 12 ft by Mon morning and below 8 ft by Fri, except for north of 20N and east of 125W, as a new round of winds and swell accompany the next cold front moving into Baja California. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N84W to 03N91W to 07.5N113W to 04.5N136W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N136W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 104W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters. A cold front has continued to move southward across the Gulf of California and Baja Peninsula, and extends from near 29N112W along the Mexican coast to 27.5N114.5W along the W coast of the Baja Peninsula, to beyond 26.5N120W. Gale-force westerly winds just ahead of the front inside the Gulf have diminished below gale in recent hours, while strong N-NW to N winds follow the front in the Gulf, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Strong N-NW winds to around 15 kt are N of the front across the Baja offshore waters, where seas are 8 to 15 ft, and to 16 ft farther N off of Baja Norte. Fresh NW winds are S of the front and weaken to moderate off of Baja Sur, where seas are 8 to 14 ft in NW swell. A small area of strong gap winds persist through the Gulf of Tehuantepec to the N of 15N. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas persist elsewhere across the offshore waters of southern Mexico and in the southern parts of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, large NW swell and fresh to strong NW winds will accompany the cold front off Baja California as it moves southward and dissipates across Baja Sur and the adjacent waters Mon. Winds behind the front will slowly diminish tonight through Mon, but large combined seas will persist off Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week. Farther south, fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish modestly and become more northerly overnight. Looking ahead, winds and seas off Baja California Norte will increase again by Thu associated with the next cold front moving into the area. Winds to gale force may follow this front across the northern Gulf of California. Farther south, strong to near-gale force gap winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night related to high pressure building north of the area behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region are gradually expanding this evening, and extend offshore to near 89W. Seas have recently built to 6 to 8 ft offshore there. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are across the Gulf of Panama, and extent southward to 05.5N. Combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft there as well, in a combination of northerly wind waves and long period SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. For the forecast, NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight through Mon, with seas building 8 to 9 ft, then winds slowly diminish through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. A weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Outside of the fresh trade winds and large NW swell, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 25N and 30N and west of 120W. The NW swell is producing seas 8 to 13 ft to this area. See the Special Features section for more information. East of 105W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will shift slowly NE and weaken through Tue. Fresh winds across the trade wind zone will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W this evening and tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone west of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft Mon morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the week as the high pressure north of the area weakens and lifts N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and continue to subside through Wed. Conditions will improve considerably across the basin later this week. $$ Stripling