202 AXPZ20 KNHC 072125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the northern Gulf of California. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed strong to near-gale force SW to W winds over the northern Gulf of California just ahead of the front. The pass missed the area along 30N close to the western shore of the Gulf of California, near Puertocitos. Given the near-gale force winds just east of this area, it is likely there are gale-force westerly gap winds closer to the coast. Seas likely building to 8 or 9 ft closer to the eastern shore of the Gulf of California near 30N. Winds and seas will diminish through the evening after the front moves farther south, although fresh to strong NW winds may persist into Mon as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Large Area of High Seas: Strong winds following the front moving through Baja California and adjacent offshore waters will interact with ongoing longer-period NW swell to support very rough combined seas off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through late Mon. Elsewhere combined seas in excess of 8 to 10 ft will persist as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week mainly in NW swell. Looking ahead, these wave heights will subside just as a new round of fresh swell of 8 to 12 ft moves into the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, later in the week. Farther west, strong 1031 mb high pressure is centered near 35N138W. This pattern continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong trade winds mainly from 05N to 25N west of 120W. The associated seas are interacting with longer-period NW swell propagating through the region, resulting in a large area of rough to very rough seas mainly west of 105W. The fresh trade winds will persist through the upcoming week, but the swell will gradually decay allowing combined seas to subside over most of the area to below 8 ft by Fri, except for north of 20N and east of 125W as a new round of winds and swell accompany the next cold front moving into Baja California. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W. The ITCZ extends from 08N90W to 05N95W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 115W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters and the gale force gap winds in the Gulf of California. A small area of fresh to strong gap winds persist through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist elsewhere across the offshore waters of southern Mexico and in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, gale force gap winds over the northern Gulf of California are associated with cold front moving through the region, and these winds will diminish through the afternoon. Large NW swell and fresh to strong NW winds also accompany the front off Baja California. Winds will diminish late today and tonight, but large combined seas will persist off Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of California will diminish overnight. Looking ahead, winds and seas off Baja California Norte will increase again by Thu associated with the next cold front moving into the area. Winds to gale force may follow this front across the northern Gulf of California. Farther south, strong to near-gale force gap winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night related to high pressure building north of the area behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A scatterometer satellite pass from around 15 UTC confimed fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 90W. A concurrent Sentinel altimeter pass showed wave heights of 4 to 6 ft near the coast. The same scatterometer pass indicated moderate to fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of Panama, mainly off Punta Mala. Combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft there as well, in a combination of northerly wind waves and longer-period SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident elsewhere off Central America, Colombia, and Ecador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight through Mon then slowly diminish through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. A weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Outside of the strong trade winds and large NW swell, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 25N and 30N and west of 120W. The NW swell is producing seas 10 to 13 ft to this area. See the Special Features section for more information. East of 105W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will shift slowly NE and weaken through Tue. Fresh to strong winds across the trade wind zone will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W this evening and tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone west of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft overnight. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the week as the high pressure north of the area weakens and lifts N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and continue to subside through Wed. Conditions will improve considerably across the basin later this week. $$ Christensen