000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong NW winds are evident across the lower Colorado River Valley this morning associated with a cold front moving through Southern California and into Baja California Norte. Westerly gap winds into the northern Gulf of California may reach minimal gale force into the afternoon, with rough seas, mainly near 30N. Winds and seas will diminish through the evening after the front moves farther south, although fresh to strong NW winds may persist into Mon as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Large Area of High Seas: Strong winds follow the front moving through Baja California and adjacent offshore waters will interact with ongoing longer-period NW swell to support very rough combined seas off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through late Mon. Elsewhere combined seas in excess of 8 to 10 ft will persist as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week mainly in NW swell. Looking ahead, these wave heights will subside just as a new round of fresh swell of 8 to 12 ft moves into the waters off Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, later in the week. Farther west, strong 1030 mb high pressure is centered near 35N138W. This pattern continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong trade winds mainly from 05N to 25N west of 120W. The associated seas are interacting with longer-period NW swell propagating through the region, resulting in a large area of rough to very rough seas mainly west of 105W. The fresh trade winds will persist through the upcoming week, but the swell will gradually decay allowing combined seas to subside over most of the area to below 8 ft by Fri, except for north of 20N and east of 125W as a new round of winds and swell accompany the next cold front moving into Baja California. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N90W. The ITCZ extends from 08N90W to 05N95W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 120W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters and the gale force gap winds in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong gap winds persist through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist elsewhere across the offshore waters of southern Mexico and in the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, as described in the Special Features section, gale force gap winds are expected this morning into the early afternoon over the northern Gulf of California associated with cold front moving through the region. Large NW swell and fresh to strong NW winds will also accompany the front off Baja California. Winds will diminish late today and tonight, but large combined seas will persist off Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of California will diminish overnight. Looking ahead, winds and seas off Baja California Norte will increase again by late Wed associated with the next cold front moving into the area. Similarly fresh to strong gap winds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid week related to high pressure building north of the area behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 90W, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 06N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Light winds are noted elsewhere between 80W and the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight through Mon then slowly diminish through Mon night. Seas may build as high as 9 ft downstream of Papagayo during this time. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas 6 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Outside of the strong trade winds and large NW swell, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 25N and 30N and west of 120W. The NW swell is producing seas 10 to 12 ft to this area. See the Special Features section for more information. East of 105W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will shift slowly NE and weaken through Tue. Fresh to strong winds across the trade wind zone will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W this evening and tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the week as the high pressure N of the area weakens and lifts N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and continue to subside through Wed. Conditions will improve considerably across the basin later this week. $$ Christensen