367 AXPZ20 KNHC 070920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front across southern California extending westward across the Pacific offshore waters along 33N tonight is moving southward, and will move across Baja California Norte and the extreme northern Gulf of California after sunrise Sun morning, then reach Punta Eugenia and the adjacent waters Sun evening. As the front begins to move across the far northern Gulf of California mid Sun morning, gale-force westerly gap winds will blast across the Gulf waters along 30N, just north of Las Islas Miramar, San Luis, and San Luis Gonzaga. These gale-force westerly winds will then spread farther offshore and shift southward across the open Gulf waters, ahead of the front, through mid-afternoon before diminishing below 30 kt. Frequent gusts to 40 kt are likely during the period of gales, with seas building quickly to 9 ft. Strong N-NW winds will follow the front across the Gulf waters to maintain very rough seas. Large Area of High Seas: Large NW swell continues to impact the regional Pacific waters and Baja Peninsula offshore waters tonight. The most recent pulse of NW swell continues to move through the Baja California offshore waters extending from offshore of Baja Sur SW into the tropics along 124W, with seas 12 ft and greater estimated W of a line just offshore of Punta Eugenia to 25N115W to 09N125W to 04N140W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas of 13 to 15 ft entering the outer waters of the Baja Norte and Central waters, with peak seas just north of the area likely 16 ft. These high seas will move into the Baja Norte nearshore through Sun morning. Elsewhere across this area, seas are generally 12 to 14 ft to the N of 24N, and are beginning to subside below 12 ft near 30N140W. This swell will continue moving SE and gradually subside below 12 ft to the S of 26N and E of 130W late Sun afternoon. However, a strong cold front will sink southward across the Baja California offshore waters Sun morning through Mon. This will bring another round of NW swell with seas building to 12 to 15 ft N of 26N and between Baja California Norte and 128W Sun and Sun night, then finally subside below 12 ft early Mon night. Regional seas N of 20N and E of 130W will then subside significantly through Tue night, falling to 7 to 8 ft. Farther west, a strong high pressure of 1032 mb remains nearly stationary N of the area near 35N140W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ is maintaining a large area of fresh to locally strong trade winds. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed these winds from the 06N to 25N and W of 128W. This pattern is producing high seas across a large area in trade wind swell mixed with NW swell described above. Seas 12 ft and greater are estimated W of a line from 25N115W to 09N125W to 04N140W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed peak seas of 15-17 ft seas occurring along about 130W from 16N to 23N. The high pressure will begin to drift slowly NE through early next week. As a result, the strong winds will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W this morning, and weaken to fresh winds by afternoon. The NW swell will also move through the area and begin to subside Sun night and Mon. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft Sun night. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds to prevail across this area Sun through most of the week, with seas subsiding below 10 ft on Tue. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N86W to 05N92W. The ITCZ extends from 05N92W to 07N105W to 06N134W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 102W and 109W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09N between 112W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters. Large NW swell is building across the regional waters tonight, with seas of 13 to 15 ft entering the offshore waters of Baja Norte and Central. Seas are 8 to 13 ft elsewhere across the Baja waters S of Cabo San Lazaro, then 8 to 9 ft elsewhere southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters, extending S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N-NW winds are across the central and southern Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle variable winds prevail from Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 7 ft in W to NW swell. For the forecast, NW swell the Baja waters will increase slightly through this morning as the peak of this swell moves through the area waters. A strong cold front is expected to sink southward across Baja California Norte Sun morning and continue pushing southward, and gradually dissipate across the waters of Baja Sur Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds and large seas 12 to 15 ft will accompany the front as it moves southward over the area. Strong and gusty gap winds to gale-force will occur ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf of California midday Sun through Sun afternoon then diminish to fresh to strong. Fresh to strong N-NW winds will spill into the northern Gulf behind the front this morning to maintain rough seas, with peak seas of 9 ft expected in the northern Gulf early Sun afternoon. Conditions will improve across Baja offshore waters by Tue, and in the Gulf of California early Wed. Strong northerly gap winds will spill out of the Tehuantepec region Sun through Sun night, then a more significant strong gap wind event is expected there beginning Tue evening, behind of Gulf of Mexico cold front. Winds may reaching near gale-force Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 06N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Light winds are noted elsewhere between 81W and the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight through Mon then slowly diminish through Mon night. Seas may build as high as 9 ft downstream of Papagayo during this time. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas 6 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Outside of the strong trade winds and large NW swell, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 25N and 30N and W of 120W. The NW swell is producing seas 10 to 15 ft to this area. See the Special Features section for more information. South of the ITCZ and W of 110W, moderate SE trade winds remain, with seas in the range of 7 to 13 ft in NW to N swell. East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will shift slowly NE and weaken through Tue. Fresh to strong winds across the trade wind zone will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W this evening and tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the week as the high pressure N of the area weakens and lifts N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and continue to subside through Wed. Conditions will improve considerably across the basin later this week. $$ Stripling