945 AXPZ20 KNHC 070321 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: Large NW swell continues to impact the regional Pacific waters and Baja Peninsula offshore waters this evening. The most recent pulse of NW swell has moved through the Baja California offshore waters extending from offshore of Baja Sur SW into the tropics along 123W, with seas 12 ft and greater estimated W of a line from 30N116.5W to 06N130W to 140W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas of 16 to 18 ft well offshore of Baja Norte, from 29.5N northward between 118W and 124W. These high seas will move into the Baja Norte waters in the next several hours. Elsewhere across this area, seas are generally 12 to 14 ft to the N of 24N. This swell will continue moving SE and gradually subside below 12 ft to the S of 26N and E of 130W on Sun afternoon. However, a strong cold front will sink southward across the Baja California offshore waters early Sun morning through Mon. This will bring another round of NW swell with seas building to 12 to 15 ft N of 26N and between Baja California Norte and 128W Sun and Sun night, then finally subside below 12 ft by Mon night. Regional seas N of 20N and E of 130W will then subside significantly through Tue night, falling to 7 to 8 ft. Farther west, a strong high pressure of 1030 mb remains stationary N of the area near 34N140W. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong trade winds. Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed these winds from the 07N to 25N and W of 122W. This pattern is producing high seas across a large area in trade wind swell mixed with NW swell described above. Seas 12 ft and greater are estimated W of a line from 30N116.5W to 06N130W to 140W. Recent satellite altimeter data along 140W showed a broad area of 14-17 ft seas occurring from 12N to 25N. The high pressure will begin to drift slowly NE through early next week. As a result, the strong winds will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W tonight, and weaken to fresh winds Sun. The NW swell will also move through the area and begin to subside Sun night and Mon. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft Sun night. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds to prevail across this area Sun through most of the week, with seas subsiding below 10 ft by late Tue afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N85W to 07.5N93W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N93W to 07N112W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N between 113W and 118W, and from 03N to 08N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters. Large NW swell is building across the regional waters this evening, with seas of 14 to 16 ft currently moving into the outer waters of Baja Norte. Seas are 8 to 13 ft elsewhere across the Baja waters S of Punta Eugenia, then 8 to 10 ft elsewhere southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters, extending S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds are across the central and southern Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail from Cabo Corrientes to offshore of Acapulco, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Light and variable winds prevail across the waters E of Acapulco to the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and S swell. For the forecast, NW swell the Baja waters will increase slightly overnight. A strong cold front is expected to sink southward across Baja California Norte on Sun morning and continue pushing south through Mon. Fresh to strong NW winds and large seas 12 to 15 ft will accompany the front as it moves southward over the area. Strong and gusty gap winds will occur ahead of and behind the front across north and central portions of the Gulf of California midday Sun through Mon morning, with gusts to gale- force. Seas will build to 9 ft in the northern Gulf on Sun afternoon. Conditions will improve across Baja offshore waters by Tue, and in the Gulf of California by Wed. The next strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast from Sun through Sun night. Another strong gap wind event will begin Tue evening, with winds possibly reaching near gale-force Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to locally moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 04N, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light winds are noted between 80W and the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4 to 6 ft in NW and SW swell. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will pulse fresh to strong tonight through Mon. Seas may build as high as 9 ft downstream of Papagayo during this time. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Outside of the strong trade winds and large NW swell, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 26N and 30N and W of 120W. The NW swell is bringing seas 10 to 14 ft to this area. See the Special Features section for more information. South of the ITCZ and W of 110W, moderate to locally fresh SE trade winds remain with seas in the range of 7 to 13 ft in NW to N swell. East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, as the high pressure north of the area shifts slowly NE, the strong winds will begin to diminish and shift W of 130W tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun night. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the week as the high pressure N of the area weakens and lifts N. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and begin to subside by Wed. Conditions will improve across the basin later this week. $$ Stripling