000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062148
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Area of High Seas: Large NW swell continues to impact the 
regional Pacific waters and Baja Peninsula offshore waters. Seas
range 8 to 13 ft, with the 12 ft seas and higher noted N of 27N
and W of 118W. Outside of the Baja California offshore waters, 
seas also range 10 to 13 ft within NW swell N of 25N between 118W
and 140W. This swell will gradually subside below 12 ft across 
the waters tonight through early Sun morning. A strong cold front
is expected to move across the Baja California offshore waters 
early Sun morning through Mon. This will bring another round of 
NW swell with seas building to 12 to 15 ft N of 25N and between 
Baja California Norte and 126W. Seas will finally subside below 
12 ft by Mon night and continue to subside through Tue.

Farther west, a strong high pressure of 1034 mb is located N of 
the area near 34N140W. This high pressure will begin to drift
slowly NE through early next week. As a result, the pressure 
gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ is maintaining
a large area of fresh to strong trade winds. The latest
scatterometer depicts this from the 07N to 25N and W of 120W. 
This is also contributing to enhancing seas in the area, with 
altimeter confirming seas ranging 12 to 15 ft. As the high 
shifts slowly, the strong winds will begin to diminish and shift
W of 125W tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W 
of 125W will slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Expect
moderate to fresh trade winds to prevail Sun through most of the
week.

Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at  
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 08N89W. The ITCZ extends from 08N89W to 05N120W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N 
to 09N and W of 127W and from 04N to 08N between 110W and 118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for more details associated with
the large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters.

Outside of the large NW swell in the region, scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate NE winds across the Baja offshore 
waters, extending S to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds are also likely prevailing across the central
and southern Gulf, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scatterometer
data also showed moderate N winds in the northern Gulf with seas
to 3 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail 
from Cabo Corrientes to offshore of Acapulco, where seas are 5 to
8 ft within NW swell. Light and variable winds prevail across 
the waters E of Acapulco to the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 4 
to 6 ft in mixed NW and S swell. 

For the forecast, NW swell impacting the Baja Norte waters will 
briefly subside tonight. A strong cold front is forecast to 
enter Baja California Norte on Sun morning and continue pushing
south through Mon. Fresh to strong NW winds and large seas 12 to
15 ft will accompany the front as it pushes southward over the 
area. Fresh to strong gap winds ahead of and behind the front 
will also spread through the Gulf of California midday Sun 
through Mon morning. Seas will build to 9 ft in the northern Gulf
on Sun afternoon. Wind gusts to gale- force can be expected 
across both the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of 
California during this time. Conditions will improve off the Baja
California by Tue, and in the Gulf of California by Wed. The 
next strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast 
from Sun through Sun night. Another strong gap wind event will 
begin Tue evening, with winds possibly reaching near gale- force 
Tue night. This event will end by Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, 
and extend offshore to near 89W, with seas 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to
locally moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, 
N of 04N, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light winds are noted 
between 80W and the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are
ongoing across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos
Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4 to 6 ft in 
NW and SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue  
across the Papagayo region through Sat, then pulse fresh to
strong tonight through Mon. Seas may build as high as 9 ft 
downstream of Papagayo during this time. Moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama 
through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate
southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands through Tue. Seas to 7 ft in mixed NW and 
SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure 
gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of 
Central America offshore waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for more details associated with
the large NW swell and the strong trade winds.

Outside of the strong trade winds and large NW swell, moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds prevail between 25N and 31N and W of 110W.
The NW swell is bringing seas 8 to 13 ft to this area. See the
Special Features section for more information. South of the 
ITCZ and W of 110W, moderate to locally fresh SE trade winds 
remain with seas in the range of 7 to 13 ft in NW to N swell. 
East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5 
to 7 ft within mostly NW swell.

For the forecast, as the high pressure north of the area shifts,
the strong winds will begin to diminish and shift W of 125W 
tonight. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will
slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds will then remain over this area through most of the
week as the high pressure N of the area weakens and lifts N. 
Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are 
expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue, and begin to subside
by Wed. Conditions will improve across the basin later this 
week.

$$ 
AReinhart