000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061007 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: Large NW swell impacting the regional Pacific waters and Baja Peninsula offshore waters has subsided in the past 6-8 hours, and seas between the Baja Peninsula and 120W are now 8 to 11 ft. However, new NW swell has moved into the regional waters E of 140W since Fri afternoon and now is producing an area of seas 12 ft and higher between 120W and 140W, from 06N to beyond 30N. Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas 15 to 17 ft N of 27N and W of 138W. This swell will continue to move SE overnight through Sat, and gradually subside to less than 12 ft across the waters N of 24N early Sun morning. Seas will again build to 12 ft and higher across the waters between Baja California Norte and 126W, to the N of 26N, Sun afternoon through Mon, as a strong frontal system moves southward into the Baja California offshore waters. Strong high pressure of 1034 mb located N of the area near 33.5N140W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Sat, then drift very slowly NE into early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W, that will gradually shift W of 125W Sat through early Sun morning. This pattern is producing a broad zone of higher seas in trade wind swell that is merging with new NW swell moving through the region. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 125W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through early Sun, then slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10N74W to 09.5N82W to 05.5N105W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N105W to 04N116W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the region. NW swell continues to dominate the Baja Peninsula offshore waters tonight, with seas subsiding in the past 6 hours or so to the 7 to 10 ft range. Fresh NW to N winds have shifted to the W of 120W, leaving gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the Baja offshore waters, extending S to the Revillagigedo Islands. New NW swell has begun to move into the outer waters of Baja Norte, where seas have built to 10-12 ft. Across the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to locally fresh across the central and southern region, where seas are 3-5 ft. In the northern Gulf, winds are light from the NW with seas 2 ft. Elsewhere gentle NW to W winds prevail from Cabo Corrientes to offshore of Acapulco, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Light and variable winds prevail across the waters E of Acapulco and become light onshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NW swell will begin to build across the Baja offshore waters tonight, and briefly increase to 10 to 14 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte early Sat before subsiding Sat night through Sun. Gentle to moderate N winds along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail overnight, then become N to NE Sat, then return to NW Sat evening through early Sun. Yet another cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte on Sun morning. This front will bring fresh to strong NW winds and large seas 12 ft and greater across this area. Fresh to strong gap winds ahead of and behind the front will also spread through the northern Gulf of California midday Sun through Mon morning, when seas will build as high as 9 ft. Wind gusts to gale-force can be expected across both the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of California during this time. The next strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Tue evening, with winds possibly reaching near gale- force Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W, with seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 06N, where seas are 3-4 ft. Light cyclonic winds between 81W and the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4-5 ft in W to NW swell, except 5-6 ft surrounding the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Sat, then pulse fresh to strong Sat night through Mon. Seas may build as high as 9 ft downstream of Papagayo during this time. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Mon night before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend and prevail through Tue. Seas to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Strong trade winds continue between the ITCZ and 25N to the W of 120W, with areas of winds 25-30 kt possible between 15N and 21N. Peak seas there are 14-16 ft. N of 25N, fresh N to NE winds prevail between 120W and 130W, while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are found between 130W and 140W. New NW swell has entered the NW waters, with seas in the 12-17 ft range extending W of 130W, while seas are 9 to 13 ft between 120W and 130W. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range elsewhere west of the Baja California offshore waters. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE trade winds remain along with seas in the range of 7-11 ft in NW to N swell W of 110W. East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5-7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the strong high pressure located just N of the area along 140W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Sat, then drift very slowly NE into early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W through Sat morning. Strong trade winds will then shift W of 125W Sat through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and lifts N. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through early Sun, then slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue. $$ Stripling