000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: Large NW swell impacting the Baja Peninsula offshore waters has subsided in recent hours, and seas between the Baja Peninsula and 124W are now 8 to 11 ft. However, new NW swell has moved into the regional waters E of 140W this afternoon and now is producing an area of seas 12 ft and higher between 129W and 140W, from 06N to beyond 30N. Peak seas are W of 134W at 13-15 ft. This swell will move SE overnight through Sat and gradually subside to less than 12 ft across the waters N of 25N early Sat night. Seas will again build to 12 ft and higher across the waters between Baja California Norte and 125W Sun afternoon through Mon as a strong frontal system moves southward into the area. Strong high pressure of 1033 mb located N of the area near 33.5N139W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Sat, then drift very slowly NE into early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W through Sat morning, then shift W of 125W Sat through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and lifts N. This pattern is producing a broad zone of higher seas in trade wind swell that is merging with NW swell moving through the region. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through early Sun, then slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 10.5N74W to 09N83W to 06.5N108W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N108W to 03.5N125W to beyond 05N140W. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted from 02N to 04.5N between 80W and 90W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the region. NW swell continues to dominate the Baja Peninsula offshore waters, with seas having begun to subside and are currently in the 8-11 ft range, with seas exceeding 8 ft N of 17N and offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh NW to N winds are noted about 120 nm offshore of Baja Norte, while winds near the coast have diminished to moderate. Across the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh across the central and southern region, where seas are 3-5 ft. In the northern Gulf, winds are light with seas 1-2 ft. Elsewhere S of 20N, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail to offshore of Acapulco, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 8 to 10 ft from near the Revillagigedo Islands westward to 116W. Light and variable winds prevail across the waters E of Acapulco and become moderate onshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NW swell will subside to 7-10 ft across the Baja California offshore waters early tonight, then briefly increase to 10 to 12 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte tonight through Sat night before subsiding. Moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail through Sat morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte on Sun morning. This front will bring fresh to strong NW winds and large seas across this area. Fresh to strong gap winds ahead and behind the front will also spread through the northern Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Mon morning. Wind gusts to gale-force can be expected across both the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of California during this time. The next strong gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening with winds possibly reaching near gale-force Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 90W, with seas 5 to 7 ft. Moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 07N, with seas of 2-4 ft. Weak low pressure of 1011 mb is analyzed offshore of Colombia near 05N79W, and producing light to gentle cyclonic winds between 81W and the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4-5 ft in W to NW swell, except 5-6 ft surrounding the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through Sat, then pulse fresh to strong Sat night through midday Mon. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Mon before weakening. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend and prevail through Mon. Seas to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. Strong trade winds continue between the ITCZ and 25N to the W of 120W, with areas of winds 25-30 kt. Peak seas there are 13-15 ft. N of 25N, fresh N to NE winds prevail between 120W and 130W, while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are found between 130W and 140W. New NW swell has entered the NW waters, with seas in the 12-14 ft range extend W of 130W, while seas are 9 to 12 ft between 120W and 130W. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range elsewhere west of the Baja California offshore waters. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE trade winds remain along with seas in the range of 8-11 ft in NW to N swell W of 110W. East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5-7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, the strong high pressure located just N of the area along 139W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Sat, then drift very slowly NE into early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W through Sat morning. It will shift W of 125W Sat night through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trades will then remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through early Sun, then slowly subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected S of 15N and W of 120W Mon and Tue. $$ Stripling