261 
AXPZ20 KNHC 052138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 05 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Area of High Seas: NW swell will impacting the Baja 
Peninsula offshore will gradually subside through tonight.
Seas are currently 8 to 15 ft, with the seas exceeding 12 ft N 
of 23N to the W of 115W. Strong NW winds continue well offshore 
of Baja Norte, and will diminish by this evening. Seas will 
subside below 12 ft by this evening. However, a new set of
long-period NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 
130W by Sat morning with a new front and produce another large 
area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area N of 23N, 
between 180W and 140W tonight through Sat night before subsiding 
below 12 ft.

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb located N of the area near 
33N137W is expected to remain nearly stationary through early 
next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and
the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to 
strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W through
Sat morning. It will shift W of 125W Sat night through Sun 
morning. Moderate to fresh trade winds will then remain over 
this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens 
and shifts NW. This pattern is producing a broad zone of higher 
seas in trade wind swell that is merging with NW swell moving 
through the region. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W 
of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through Sun afternoon. 
Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening.

Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at  
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 09N90W. The ITCZ extends from 09N90W to 07N106W to 
04N122W to beyond the area at 06N140W. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 
133W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features Section for more details associated with
the large NW swell impacting the region.

NW swell continues to plague the Baja Peninsula offshore waters,
with seas in the 8-16 ft range, and seas exceeding 12 ft N of 
24N. Strong NW winds are noted about 120 nm offshore of Baja 
Norte, while winds near the coast have diminished to moderate to 
fresh. Across the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh
across the central and southern region, where seas are 3-5 ft. 
In the northern Gulf, winds are light with seas 1-2 ft. Elsewhere
S of 20N, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail to offshore 
of Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, NW swell will subside to 8-10 ft this evening,
then briefly increase to 12 ft across the far outer waters of 
Baja Norte tonight through Sat night. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail through Sat 
morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter 
Baja California Norte on Sun morning. This front will bring fresh
to strong NW winds and large seas across this area. Fresh to 
strong gap winds ahead and behind the front will also spread 
through the northern Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Mon
morning. Wind gusts to gale force can be expected across both 
the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of California during 
this time. The next strong gap wind event in the region of 
Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening with winds possibly 
reaching near gale-force Tue night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo 
region, and extend offshore to near 90W, with seas to 7 ft. 
Moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 
05.5N, with seas of 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing 
elsewhere across the remainder Central America and 
Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas 
are 4-6 ft in W to NW swell, except 5-7 ft surrounding the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, NE to E fresh to strong winds across the 
Papagayo region will diminish by early this evening, then pulse 
again Sun through Sun night. Moderate northerly winds will 
persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Mon before 
weakening. Meanwhile, southerly moderate winds can be expected 
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the 
weekend and prevail through Mon. Seas to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW 
swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure 
gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of 
Central America offshore waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features Section for more details associated with
the large NW swell and the strong trade winds.

N of the belt of strong winds, large NW swell with seas in the 
12-15 ft range extend westward from the Baja California offshore
waters to 125W and N of 23N. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range
elsewhere west of the Baja California offshore waters, except 
for higher seas of 11-14 ft W of 133W and N of the ITCZ as 
depicted in a recent altimeter data pass. South of the ITCZ, 
moderate to locally fresh trade winds remain along with seas in 
the range of 8-11 ft in long-period NW to N swell W of 110W. 
East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate along with seas of 5-7
ft within mostly NW swell.

For the forecast, strong high pressure of 1036 mb located N of 
the area near 33N179W is expected to remain nearly stationary 
through early next week. The pressure gradient between the 
associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large 
area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and 
W of 120W through Sat morning. It will shift W of 125W Sat night 
through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trades will then remain 
over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area 
weakens and shifts NW. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone 
W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through Sun 
afternoon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun 
evening.

$$
AReinhart/Aguirre