000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051555 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell will impacting the Baja Peninsula offshore waters will begin to subside today. Seas are currently 8 to 15 ft, with the seas exceeding 12 ft N of 23N to the W of 115W. Strong NW winds continue well offshore of Baja Norte, and will diminish later today. Seas will subside below 12 ft by this evening. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W by Sat morning with a new front and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area N of 23N, between 180W and 140W tonight through Sat night before subsiding below 12 ft. Strong high pressure of 1033 mb located N of the area near 33N139W is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W through Sat morning. It will shift W of 125W Sat night through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trades will then remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. This pattern is producing a broad zone of higher seas in trade wind swell that is merging with NW swell moving through the region. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through Sun afternoon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 06N107W. The ITCZ continues from 06N107W to 03N124W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 101W and 114W and from 04N to 08N and W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the region. NW swell continues to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 16 ft range, and seas exceeding 12 ft N of 24N. Satellite altimeter data this morning confirmed seas of 8 to 12 ft across the offshore Baja California. Strong NW winds are noted about 120 nm offshore of Baja Norte, while winds near the coast have diminished to moderate to fresh. Across the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh across the central and southern region, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. In the northern Gulf, winds are light with seas 1 to 2 ft. Elsewhere S of 20N, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail to offshore of Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft by this evening, then briefly increase to 12 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte tonight through Sat night. Moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail through Sat morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte on Sun morning. This front will bring fresh to strong NW winds and large seas across this area. Fresh to strong gap winds ahead and behind the front will also spread through the northern Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Mon morning. Wind gusts to gale force can be expected across both the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of California during this time. The next strong gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening with winds possibly reaching near gale-force Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 90W, with seas to 7 ft. Moderate northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 05.5N, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4 to 6 ft in W to NW swell, except 5 to 7 ft surrounding the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, NE to E fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo region will diminish later today, and then pulse again Sun through Sun night. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Mon before weakening. Meanwhile, southerly moderate winds can be expected between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the weekend and prevail through Mon. Seas to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell will accompany these winds. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell and the strong trade winds. N of the belt of strong winds, large NW swell with seas in the 12 to 15 ft range extend westward from the Baja California offshore waters to 125W and N of 23N, and 8 to 11 ft elsewhere between 120W and 140W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are ongoing over this second region of large swell. South of the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail with seas 8 to 14 ft in N to NW swell W of 110W. East of 110W, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5 to 7 ft within mostly NW swell. For the forecast, strong high pressure of 1033 mb located N of the area near 33N139W is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N and W of 120W through Sat morning. It will shift W of 125W Sat night through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trades will then remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through Sun afternoon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. $$ AReinhart