087 AXPZ20 KNHC 050856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell associated with a cold front that dissipated over Baja California Sur waters Thu afternoon continues to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters tonight, with seas in the 8 to 16 ft range, and seas exceeding 12 ft N of 23N to the E of 124W. Strong NW winds in the wake of the front have retreated to well offshore of Baja Norte, while winds near the Baja coast have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds. This swell will continue to spread SE and reach the Revillagigedo Islands overnight, and gradually subside below 12 ft through Fri evening. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W Fri morning and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area N of 24N, between 120W and 140W Fri night through Sat night before subsiding below 12 ft. Strong high pressure of 1034 mb located N of the area near 32N136W is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sat morning, then W of 125W through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh trades will then remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. This pattern is producing a broad zone of higher seas in trade wind swell that is merging with NW swell moving through the region. The resultant seas in the trade wind zone W of 127W will remain in the 12-15 ft range through Sun afternoon. Seas are expected to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73.5W to 09.5N83W to 06N90W to 06N107W to 03N114W. The ITCZ extends from 03N114W to 02.5N123W to 05N137W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N E of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 100W and 113W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell impacting the region. NW swell associated with a cold front that dissipated over Baja California Sur Thu afternoon continues to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 16 ft range, and seas exceeding 12 ft N of 24N. Overnight satellite altimeter data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft entering Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. Strong NW winds in the wake of the front have retreated to about 120 nm offshore of Baja Norte, while winds near the coast have diminished to moderate to fresh. Across the Gulf of California, winds are gentle across northern portions, and moderate to locally fresh elsewhere, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere S of 20N, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail to offshore of Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed that winds gaps winds have ended across the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, where seas are now 3 to 4 ft. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread SE and across the remaining SW Mexican offshore waters tonight and Fri, and gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft through Fri evening, then briefly increase to 12 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte Fri night through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail through Sat. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte from the north on Sun morning, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and large seas. Fresh to strong gap winds ahead and behind the front will spread through the northern Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Mon morning. Wind gusts to gale force can be expected across both the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of California during this time. Otherwise, the next strong gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue evening with winds possibly reaching near gale-force Tue night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 89W, with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama, N of 05.5N, with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these areas are 4 to 5 ft in W to NW swell, except 5 to 6 ft surrounding the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, NE to E winds across the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong overnight, and then again Sun through Sun night. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Mon before weakening. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. However, southerly winds between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate speeds over the weekend and prevail through Mon with seas to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell. Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered N of the area near 32N136W. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is generating a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E trades to 25N and W of 120W. Seas are in the 8 to 14 ft in mixed NW and NE trade wind swell over this area. N of the belt of strong winds, large NW swell with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range extend westward from the Baja California offshore waters to 125W and N of 23N, and 8 to 11 ft elsewhere between 125W and 140W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are ongoing over this second region of large swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas exceeding 12 ft will gradually diminish from 120W to 130W through Fri. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W Fri morning and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area between 120W and 140W late Fri through Sat night before subsiding below 12 ft W of 120W. Strong high pressure N of the area is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sat morning, then shrink to W of 125W through Sun morning. Winds are expected to diminish to moderate to fresh over this area Sun through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. Peak seas in the trade wind zone will remain in the 12-14 ft range through Sun morning. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening, then gradually subside to 8 to 10 ft by Tue. $$ Stripling