000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050319 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell associated with a cold front that dissipated over Baja California Sur waters this afternoon continues to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters this evening, with seas in the 8 to 17 ft range, and seas exceeding 12 ft N of 25N to the E of 120W. Strong NW winds in the wake of the front have shifted offshore of Baja Norte, while winds near the coast have diminished to fresh speeds. This swell will continue to spread SE and reach the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, and gradually subside below 12 ft through Sat night. Aside from the Baja California offshore waters, large NW swell with seas in the 12 to 14 ft range extends westward to 128W and N of 23N. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas exceeding 12 ft will gradually diminish over this region through Fri. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W Fri morning and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area between 120W and 140W late Fri through Sat night. Strong high pressure of 1034 mb located N of the area near 32N135W is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sun morning. However, moderate to fresh trades will remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. This pattern is producing a broad zone of higher seas in trade wind swell that is merging with NW swell moving through the region. The resultant peak seas in the trade wind zone will remain in the 12-14 ft range through Sun morning. Seas will start to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 09.5N84W to 06.5N106W to 03.5N114W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N114W to 06N136W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 80W and 93W, and from 04N to 09N between 100W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with large NW swell. NW swell associated with a cold front that dissipated over Baja California Sur this afternoon continues to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 17 ft range, and seas exceeding 12 ft mainly N of 25N. Strong NW winds in the wake of the front have shifted to about 120 nm offshore of Baja Norte, while winds near the coast remain fresh. Across the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 4 ft, highest over the southern half of the gulf. In the region of Tehuantepec, the gap winds have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds and peak seas are 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters where seas remain in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread SE and across the remaining SW Mexican offshore waters tonight and Fri, and then gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft through sat night. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail through Sat. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte Sun morning, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and large seas. Fresh to strong winds ahead and behind the front will spread through the Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Tue night. Otherwise, the next strong gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue night with winds likely reaching near gale-force. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 87W, with seas to 5 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, N winds have increased to moderate this evening, with seas around 3 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these regions are between 4 to 5 ft in W to NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun morning and continue to pulse over the region through Mon night. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Mon. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. However, southerly winds between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate speeds over the weekend and prevail through Mon with seas to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell. Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered N of the area near 32N135W. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is generating a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E trades to 25N and W of 120W. Seas are in the 8 to 14 ft seas over this area. N of the belt of strong winds, large NW swell with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range extends westward from the Baja California offshore waters to 128W and N of 23N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are ongoing over this second region of large swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas exceeding 12 ft will gradually diminish from 120W to 130W through Fri. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W Fri morning and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area between 120W and 140W late Fri through Sat night. Strong high pressure N of the area is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sun morning. Winds are expected to diminish to moderate to fresh over this area Sun through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. Peak seas in the trade wind zone will remain in the 12-14 ft range through Sun morning. Seas will start to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. $$ Stripling