780 AXPZ20 KNHC 042143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell associated with a cold front that dissipated over Baja California Sur this afternoon continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 15 ft range, with seas exceeding 12 ft mainly N of Punta Eugenia. NW winds in the wake of the front have diminished to fresh speeds. This swell will continue to spread SE and across the remaining Baja California offshore waters this evening, and then gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft through the weekend. Aside from the Baja California offshore waters, large NW swell with seas in the 12 to 14 ft range extends westward to 130W and N of 24N. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas exceeding 12 ft will gradually diminish over this region through Fri. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W Fri morning and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area between 120W and 140W late Fri through Sat night. Strong high pressure of 1035 mb located N of the area near 32N135W is expected to remain nearly stationary through early next week. The pressure gradient between the associated ridge and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sun morning. However, moderate to fresh trades will remain over this area through Tue as the high pressure N of the area weakens and shifts NW. Peak seas in the trade wind zone through Sun morning will remain in the 12-14 ft range. Seas will start to subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 06N92W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N100W to 06N126W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N E of 87W and from 02N to 10N between 99W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with large NW swell. NW swell associated with a cold front that dissipated over Baja California Sur this afternoon continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 15 ft range, with seas exceeding 12 ft mainly N of Punta Eugenia. NW winds in the wake of the front have diminished to fresh speeds. Along the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas to 4 ft, highest over the southern half of the gulf. In the region of Tehuantepec, the gap winds have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds and peak seas are 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters where seas remain in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell. For the forecast, NW swell will continue to spread SE and across the remaining Baja California offshore waters this evening, and then gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja Peninsula offshores will prevail through Sat. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte Sun morning, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and large seas. Winds ahead and behind the front will spread along the Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Tue night. Otherwise, the next strong gap wind event in the region of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Tue night with winds likely reaching near gale-force speeds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 92W, with seas to 5 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, N winds have diminished to gentle to moderate and seas have subsided to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these regions are between 4 to 5 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun morning and continue to pulse over the region through Mon night. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through early Mon. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of Central America offshore waters. However, southerly winds between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate speeds over the weekend and prevail through Mon with seas to 6 ft in southerly swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell. Strong high pressure of 1033 mb located N of the area near 32N135W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Fri before drifting NW over the weekend. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is generating a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E trades to 25N and W of 120W. Seas are in the 8 to 14 ft seas over this area. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sat night. This will produce large and steep seas in E-NE trade wind swell. This trade wind swell will merge with incoming NW swell to produce a large area of combined seas of 12 ft and greater from 08N to 22N and W of 127W today through Sat night. Peak seas in the trade wind zone will remain 14 ft during this period. Seas W of 130W are forecast to finally subside below 12 ft by late Sun afternoon. $$ Ramos