550 AXPZ20 KNHC 041605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jan 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell associated with a weakening cold front moving across Baja California Sur continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 18 ft range, with seas exceeding 12 ft seas being mainly N of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong NW winds are also behind the front N of Cabo San Lazaro. This swell will continue to spread southeastward and across the remaining Baja California offshore waters today as the front reaches Cabo San Lucas before dissipating by this evening. Winds along the Baja offshore waters will start to diminish tonight while seas gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft through the weekend, being the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Aside from the Baja California offshore waters, large NW swell with seas in the 12 to 16 ft range extends westward to 130W and N of 24N. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas exceeding 12 ft will gradually diminish over this region through Fri. However, new NW swell will move into the regional waters W of 130W Fri morning and produce another large area of seas 12 ft and greater, covering the area between 120W and 140W late Fri through Sat night. Strong high pressure of 1033 mb located N of the area near 32N135W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Fri before drifting NW over the weekend. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sat night. This will produce large and steep seas in E-NE trade wind swell. This trade wind swell will merge with incoming NW swell to produce a large area of combined seas of 12 ft and greater from 08N to 22N and W of 127W today through Sat night. Peak seas in the trade wind zone will remain 14 ft during this period. Seas W of 130W are forecast to finally subside below 12 ft by late Sun afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N94W to 07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N E of 82W, from 06N to 10N between 98W and 107W, and from 03N to 08N between 121W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell. NW swell associated with a weakening cold front moving across Baja California Sur continue to affect the Baja Peninsula offshore waters with seas in the 8 to 18 ft range, with seas exceeding 12 ft seas being mainly N of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong NW winds are also behind the front N of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are also along the northern Gulf of California to 26N with seas to 5 ft. The tail of a cold front extending to Veracruz, Mexico has stalled and light to gentle northerly continue to induce some fresh to strong N to NE winds in the region of Tehuantepec N of 14N where seas are to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters where seas remain in the 5-6 ft range in NW swell. For the forecast, the swell along the Baja Peninsula offshores will continue to spread southeastward across the remaining Baja California Sur offshore waters today as the front reaches Cabo San Lucas before dissipating by this evening. Winds along the Baja offshore waters will start to diminish tonight while seas gradually subside to 8 to 11 ft through the weekend, being the highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon. However, moderate to fresh NW winds will expand to the southern half of the Gulf of California today and prevail through Sun morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter Baja California Norte Sun afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and large seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W, with seas to 6 ft. Moderate N winds continue in the Gulf of Panama N of 05N with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the remainder Central America and Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas over these regions are between 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds will continue to pulse to fresh at night in the Papagayo region through Sat as a ridge N of the area weakens. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of the area through the end of this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features Section for more details associated with the large NW swell. Strong high pressure of 1033 mb located N of the area near 32N135W is expected to remain nearly stationary through Fri before drifting NW over the weekend. The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is generating a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E trades to 25N and W of 120W. Seas are in the 8 to 14 ft seas over this area. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and W of 120W through Sat night. This will produce large and steep seas in E-NE trade wind swell. This trade wind swell will merge with incoming NW swell to produce a large area of combined seas of 12 ft and greater from 08N to 22N and W of 127W today through Sat night. Peak seas in the trade wind zone will remain 14 ft during this period. Seas W of 130W are forecast to finally subside below 12 ft by late Sun afternoon. $$ Ramos/Hogsett