336 AXPZ20 KNHC 040307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell generated by a strong frontal system affecting the Pacific coast of the U.S. and Baja California Norte continues to propagate southeastward into the regional Pacific waters N of 20N and W of 114W. This is ongoing behind a cold front moving into the region that currently extends from the extreme northern Gulf of California southwestward across Baja California Norte to near 25N130W. Seas across this area are presently 8 to 16 ft in building NW swell. This swell will continue to spread southeastward and across the Baja California waters tonight, with and behind the cold front that will reach Cabo San Lucas and adjacent offshore waters Thu before dissipating. NW swell associated with this system will build to 12 to 17 ft across the Baja Norte offshore waters by Thu morning, accompanied by strong N-NW winds behind the front. On Thu and Thu night, seas of 12 ft and greater will eventually cover a large area that will extend from 21N to beyond 30N, between the Baja California coastal waters and 140W. Winds and seas will begin to subside late Thu night through Fri, falling below 12 ft by Fri late in the afternoon. Meanwhile, strong high pressure behind the cold front will settle just N of the area near 32N137W through Thu. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 22N and W of 120W through Sun, to produce large and steep seas in E-NE trade wind swell. This trade wind swell will merge with incoming NW swell to produce a large area of combined seas of 12 ft and greater through late Sun when it will significantly subside. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 09.5N83W to 06.5N103W. The ITCZ extends from 05N108W to 07.5N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 81W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 97W and 109W, and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to move across Baja California Norte and the adjacent waters tonight, and currently extends from from the extreme northern Gulf of California southwestward across Baja California Norte to beyond 26N120W. Surface ridging anchored by a 1032 mb high near 32N136W extends southeastward into the area, behind the cold front. The associated pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds S of the front to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, where seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell. N of the front, strong NW winds are entering the area, with strong westerly gap winds bleeding into the northern Gulf of California. Seas across these Baja offshore waters are 8 to 13 ft, and as high as 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are occurring elsewhere inside the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in W to NW swell. For the forecast, the cold front will reach Punta Eugenia in the next few hours, then gradually dissipate offshore of Cabo San Lucas and Baja Sur Thu. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow in behind the front to the north of Cabo San Lazaro and persist through Thu evening before diminishing. Fresh to strong W gap winds will briefly occur in the northern and central Gulf of California through tonight with the front. High seas in mixed NW swell will follow in behind this front, affecting the offshore waters of Baja California through Fri. Seas across Baja Norte will peak at 12 to 17 ft late tonight and Thu, with seas to 12 ft reaching as far S as 23N Thu evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE gap winds persist across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W, with seas to 6 ft. Further offshore, seas are 7 to 8 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. Moderate N to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama N of 05N with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing across the Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters where seas are in the 4-6 ft range in W to NW swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south, with seas 6 to 7 ft in W to NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse at night in the Papagayo region through Sat as a ridge N of the area weakens. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of the area through the end of this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from Baja California Norte near 29N115W to 26N120W to 25N130W. The front is followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas in the 8 to 16 ft range in building NW swell. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail ahead of this front extending across the Baja California offshore waters. Across the NW waters W of 130W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted with seas of 10 to 13 ft in NW swell. Fresh to strong NE to E trades are ongoing N of the ITCZ to 25N and west of 123W. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft seas over this area. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and reach the central Gulf of California to Cabo San Lazaro by Thu morning. Large NW swell filling in behind this front will build seas to 12 to 16 ft across the waters north of 24N through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 25N, and west of 120W, will increase to strong and expand in areal coverage through Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 15 ft across that area. See the special features section above for more information. $$ Stripling