000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032211 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Area of High Seas: NW swell generated by a low pressure system just offshore of the Pacific Northwest coasts of the U.S. and Canada continue to enter the local Pacific waters N of 24N and W of 120W. This is ongoing behind a cold front moving across the region that currently extends from 31N116W to 26N124W. Seas across this area are presently 8 to 14 ft in building NW swell. This swell will continue to propagate southeastward and into the Baja California Norte waters tonight, with and behind the cold front that will reach Cabo San Lucas and adjacent offshore waters Thu before dissipating. NW swell associated with this system will build to 12 to 17 ft across the Baja Norte offshore waters by Thu morning, accompanied by strong N-NW winds behind the front. On Thu and Thu night, seas of 12 ft and greater will eventually cover a large area that will extend from 21N to beyond 30N, between the Baja California coastal waters and 140W. Winds and seas will begin to subside late Thu night through Fri, falling below 12 ft by Fri late in the afternoon. Meanwhile, strong high pressure behind the cold front will settle just N of the area near 32N137W through Thu. The pressure gradient between this high and the ITCZ will continue to produce a large area of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 22N and W of 120W through Sun, to produce large and steep seas in E-NE trade wind swell. This trade wind swell will merge with incoming NW swell to produce a large area of combined seas of 12 ft and greater through late Sun when it will significantly subside. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N91W to 05N106W. The ITCZ extends from 05N106W to 05N129W then resumes W of a surface trough near 05N133W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N E of 88W, from 00N to 11N between 88W and 111W, and from 05N to 13N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging anchored by a 1034 mb high near 32N137W extends southeastward into the area, behind a cold front that is moving across Baja California Norte. The associated pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds S of Punta Eugenia with seas to 7 ft in NW swell. N of Punta Eugenia NW winds are fresh to strong and 8 ft seas are rapidly entering that area. Light to gentle variable winds are occurring inside the northern Gulf of California with seas to 2 ft, while moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas of 3 to 4 ft extend from central portions to the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range in NW swell. For the forecast, the cold front will reach Punta Eugenia by this evening, then gradually dissipate offshore of Cabo San Lucas and Baja Sur Thu before dissipating. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow in behind the front to the north of Cabo San Lazaro and persist through Thu evening before diminishing. Fresh to strong W gap winds will briefly occur in the northern and central Gulf of California this evening and night with the front. High seas in mixed NW swell will follow in behind this front, affecting the offshore waters of Baja California through Fri. Seas across Baja Norte will peak at 12 to 17 ft late tonight and Thu, with seas to 12 ft reaching as far S as 23N Thu evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE gap winds persist across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 90W, with seas to 8 ft. Moderate N to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama N of 06N with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing across the Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters where seas are in the 5-6 ft range in W to NW swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south, with seas 6 to 7 ft in W to NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse at night in the Papagayo region through Sat as a ridge N of the area weakens. Moderate northerly winds will persist across the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of the area through the end of this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 31N116W to 26N124W. The front is followed by fresh to strong winds and seas in the 8 to 15 ft range in building NW swell. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail ahead of this front extending across the Baja California offshore waters. Fresh to strong NE to E trades are ongoing N of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft seas over this area. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and reach the central Gulf of California to Cabo San Lazaro by Thu morning. Large NW swell filling in behind this front will build seas to 12 to 16 ft across the waters north of 24N through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 22N, and west of 120W, will increase to strong and expand in areal coverage through Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 15 ft across that area. See the special features section above for more information. $$ Ramos