160 
AXPZ20 KNHC 030313
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Area of High Seas: NW swell generated by a large low 
pressure system just offshore of the Pacific Northwest coasts of
the U.S. and Canada has begun to enter the local Pacific waters 
S of 30N and W of 130W in recent hours. Seas along 30N are 
presently 8 to 13 ft. This swell will propagate southeastward 
overnight and into the Baja California Norte waters late Wed, 
with and behind a cold front that will also reach Baja Norte late
Wed afternoon. Seas there will build to 8 to 13 ft by late Wed 
afternoon. Large NW swell associated with this system will then build
to 12 to 18 ft across the Baja Norte offshore waters by early 
Thu morning, accompanied by strong N-NW winds behind the front. 
Seas of 12 ft and greater will eventually cover a large area from
23N to beyond 30N, between the Baja California coastal waters to
130W on Thu. Winds and seas will begin to subside Thu night 
through Fri, subsiding below 12 ft by Fri afternoon.

Meanwhile, strong high pressure behind the cold front will settle
just N of the area near 32N137W by Wed night. The pressure
gradient between this high and the ITCZ will produce a large area
of fresh to strong trade winds south of 23N and W of 122W Wed
through Thu, and produce building seas in E-NE trade wind swell.
This trade wind swell will merge with incoming NW swell to 
produce a large area of combined seas of 12 ft and greater 
beginning Wed afternoon through Thu night, from 10N to 23N and 
west of 127W. Another pulse of large NW swell will then enter the
far NW waters late Thu night to expand the area of seas 12 ft 
and greater to beyond 30N. Peak seas in the trade wind zone are 
expected to reach 13-14 ft Thu and Thu night. Seas are W of 130W
will eventually begin to subside significantly on Sun.

Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at  
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73.5W to 09N83W to 05.5N97W to
04N108W. The ITCZ extends from 04N108W to 08N126W to beyond
06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N 
to 04.5N E of 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 07.5N between 92W and 107W, and from 05N to
09N between 126W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge extends southeastward into the area tonight, ahead 
of an approaching cold front that has reached 128W. The 
associated pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N 
winds along the Baja California offshore waters, and N to NE 
winds from Cabo Corrientes to the waters beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across the Baja offshores are in the 
6 to 8 ft range in NW swell, except 6 to 7 ft S of Cabo San 
Lazaro to 17N. Gentle NW winds are occurring inside the northern 
Gulf of California with seas to 2 ft, and moderate NW winds 
elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Highest seas of 4 to 5 ft 
prevail at the entrance of the Gulf. 

To the southeast, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail across
the Mexican offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto
Angel, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
northerly winds have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds N of 
15N, with seas subsiding to 5 to 6 ft. Much further offshore of 
Tehuantepec, seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed N and W swell to the S 
of 13N. 

For the forecast, winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to gentle 
to moderate speeds tonight. Large NW swell off the Baja 
California Norte and in the Tehuantepec region will subside 
modestly tonight. A cold front will reach the offshore waters of 
Baja California Norte by mid-day Wed, central Baja Wed night, and
dissipate across Baja Sur Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds will follow in behind the front to the north of Cabo San 
Lazaro and persist through Thu night. Fresh to strong W gap winds
will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California Wed 
evening and night with the front. Another round of large NW swell
will follow in behind this front, affecting the waters west of 
Baja California Wed afternoon through the end of the week. Seas 
across Baja Norte will peak at 12 to 18 ft Wed night and Thu, 
with seas to 12 ft reaching as far S as 23N Thu evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds persist across the Papagayo region,
and extend offshore to near 88W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh N to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama N of 
04.5N with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing 
across the Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters 
where seas are in the 6-7 ft range in NW swell. Between the 
coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to 
moderate from the south, with seas to 7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will 
support a continuation of the strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region through Wed, with seas of 7 to 9 ft persisting in
NW to W swell. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to 
pulse at night there through the weekend. Otherwise, a weak 
pressure gradient will result in light to gentle winds across the
rest of the area through the end of this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N128W to 27N140W. Gentle to moderate
N to NE winds are behind the cold front with seas 8 to 13 ft in
building NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail ahead of this 
front extending E to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. 
Fresh to strong NE to E trades are ongoing from 08N to 23N and 
west of 120W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere N of
23N and W of 120W. Farther east, an area of 8 to 9 ft seas in NW
swell is to the NW of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near 30N117W to
25N130W midday Wed, and from the central Gulf of California near
27N111W to 21N127W early Thu. Large NW swell filling in behind 
this front will build seas to 12 to 16 ft across the waters north
of 24N tonight through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds between 
the ITCZ and 23N, and west of 120W, will increase to strong and 
expand in areal coverage through Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 
14 ft across that area. See the special features section above
for more information.

$$
Stripling