329 
AXPZ20 KNHC 022207
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N84W to 07N86W to
05N91W. The ITCZ extends from 05N91W to 05N106W to 07N120W. The 
ITCZ then resumes from 06N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N E of 85W, from 03N
to 09N between 95W and 105W, and from 04N to 09N between 130W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N to NW
winds along the Baja California offshore waters as indicated by
recent scatterometer data. Seas along the Baja offshores continue
to be in the 7 to 9 ft range in NW swell, being the highest seas
N of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also 
occurring along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft, highest
seas at the entrance of the gulf. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
northerly winds have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds and
seas have subsided to 8 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW 
winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range in NW swell are ongoing
across the SW Mexican offshore waters.  

For the forecast, winds in Tenhuantepec will diminish to gentle
to moderate speeds tonight. Large NW swell off the Baja
California Norte and in the Tehuantepec region will subside
tonight. A cold front will reach the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte by mid-day Wed, central Baja Wed night, and 
dissipate across Baja Sur Thu afternoon. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds will follow in behind the front to the north of Cabo San 
Lazaro and persist through Thu night. Fresh to strong gap winds 
will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of California Wed evening
and night with the front. Another round of large NW swell will 
follow in behind this front, affecting the waters west of Baja 
California Wed afternoon through the end of the week. Seas across
Baja Norte will peak at 12 to 16 ft Wed night and Thu, with seas
to 12 ft reaching as far S as 23N Thu evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds persist across the Papagayo region,
and extend offshore to near 90W with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh N to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama N of 
03N with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are ongoing across 
the Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters where
seas are in the 5-7 ft range in NW swell. Between the coast of
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate 
from the south, with seas to 7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will 
support a continuation of the strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region through Wed, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW to W 
swell. However, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to
pulse through the weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient 
will result in light to gentle winds across the rest of the area
through the end of this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N129W to 26N140W. Gentle to moderate
N winds are behind the cold front with seas to 11 ft. Seas of 8 
to 10 ft prevail ahead of this front extending E to the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters. Fresh to strong NE to E trades
are ongoing from 07N to 23N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate
N to NE winds are elsewhere N of 23N and W of 120W. Farther 
east, an area of 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell is to the W of the
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near 30N117W to
25N130W midday Wed, and from the central Gulf of California near
27N111W to 21N127W early Thu. Large NW swell filling in behind 
this front will build seas to 12 to 16 ft across the waters north
of 24N tonight through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds between 
the ITCZ and 23N, and west of 120W, will increase to strong and 
expand in areal coverage through Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 
13 ft across that area.

$$
Ramos