000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022058
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N84W to 07N86W to
05N91W. The ITCZ extends from 05N91W to 05N106W to 07N120W. The 
ITCZ then resumes from 06N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 07N E of 85W, from 03N
to 09N between 95W and 105W, and from 04N to 09N between 130W and
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate N to NW
winds along the Baja California offshore waters as indicated by
recent scatterometer data. Seas along the Baja offshores continue
to be in the 7 to 9 ft range in NW swell, being the highest seas
N of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate NW winds are also 
occurring along the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft, highest
seas at the entrance of the gulf. 

N gap winds to near gale-force
are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 10 ft. 

For the forecast, winds in Tenhuantepec will gradually diminish 
into the afternoon. Large NW swell offshore southern and 
SW Mexico will subside today. A cold front will reach the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte by mid-day Wed, central
Baja Wed night, and dissipate across Baja Sur Thu afternoon. 
Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow in behind the front to 
the north of Cabo San Lazaro and persist through Thu night. Fresh
to strong W gap winds will briefly occur in the northern Gulf of
California Wed evening and night ahead of the front, before 
shifting NW early Thu. Another round of large NW swell will 
follow in behind this front, affecting the waters west of Baja 
California Wed afternoon through the end of the week. Seas across
Baja Norte will peak at 12 to 16 ft Thu, with seas to 12 ft 
reaching as far S as 24N Thu afternoon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds persist across the Papagayo region,
and extend offshore to near 89W. Seas are estimated at 7 to 9 
ft. Moderate to locally fresh N to NNE winds continue in the 
Gulf of Panama N of 04N. Seas there are 3 to 6 ft. Light to
gentle winds are ongoing across the Costa Rica, El Salvador and
Guatemala with seas to 8 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, winds are 
gentle to moderate from the south, with seas to 7 ft in NW 
swell.

For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will 
support a continuation of the strong NE gap winds over the 
Papagayo region through mid-day Wed, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in 
NW to W swell. Meanwhile, seas to 8 ft will also continue 
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador into mid-week due to continued
NW swell over the area. Moderate NW swell will affect the 
remainder of the area through mid-week. Moderate N winds will 
pulse to fresh at night in the Gulf of Panama through tonight, 
then weaken modestly through Fri. Otherwise, a weak pressure 
gradient will result in moderate or lighter winds across the rest
of the area through the end of this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 30N134W to 27N140W. Moderate to 
locally fresh W to NW winds are behind the cold front with seas
to 14 ft. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are ahead of this front extending E
to the Baja California offshores. Fresh to strong NE to E trades
are ongoing from the ITCZ to 23N and west of 130W. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere from the ITCZ to 20N, 
and west of 120W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, winds are
moderate or less. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across this entire area in
NW swell. Farther east, an area of 11-12 ft seas in NW swell is 
from 05N to 09N between 95W and 110W. This strong NW swell 
continues to be underforecast by the global wave models.

For the forecast, NW swell across the waters north of 25N 
will subside slightly to the 8 to 9 ft range today. Elsewhere 
the large underforecast seas of 11 to 12 ft in NW swell between
95W and 110W will gradually subside to 10 ft or less by tonight.
The next cold front that has reached the northwest waters will 
reach from near 30N128W to 26.5N140W this evening, from near 
30N117W to 25N130W midday Wed, and from the central Gulf of 
California near 27N111W to 21N127W early Thu. Large NW swell 
filling in behind this front will build seas to 12 to 16 ft 
across the waters north of 24N Tue night through Thu. Fresh to 
strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 22N, and west of 130W, 
will increase to strong and expand in areal coverage Tue through 
Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 13 ft across that area.

$$
Ramos