000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: An east to west aligned high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Mexico, along 25N, will amplify just enough tonight to produce a small area of short-lived northerly gale-force winds overnight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft late tonight through sunrise. The pressure pattern will change sufficiently by early Tue morning, and lead to diminishing winds across Tehuantepec, as low pressure develops along a stalled front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong gap winds and large steep seas will persist into Tue afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08.5N79W to 09N85W to 05N98W. The ITCZ extends from 05N98W to 1012 mb low pressure near 08N117W. The ITCZ then resumes from 08N122W to beyond 05.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 07N E of 83W, and from 03.5N to 07N between 93W and 98.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 110W and 126W, and from 04N to 08N between 131W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front across NW Mexico extends SW and enters the central Gulf of California near El Cardonal, then continues across central Baja California and into the offshore waters to near 25N117W. Moderate to fresh NW prevail across most of the offshore waters N of the front. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell. Moderate NW winds are occurring across the NE Gulf of California, immediately behind the front, where seas are 3 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf of California, mostly gentle winds are observed. High pressure centered across the NW discussion area extends E-SE to near Cabo Corrientes, and south of the front. This pattern is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds south of the front to near Acapulco, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell. N gap winds occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have increased to strong, and extend offshore to 15N. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Large NW swell offshore southern and southwestern Mexico will subside Tue. Due to the current cold front across the Baja area described above, swell of 8 ft or greater will remain over the waters west of Baja California through Tue evening, before subsiding Tue night. The next cold front will reach the waters west of Baja California Wed. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow in behind the front to the north of Cabo San Lazaro and persist through Thu night. Fresh to strong W gap winds will prevail in the northern Gulf of California Wed evening and night ahead of the front, before shifting NW early Thu. Another round of large NW swell will follow in behind this front, affecting the waters west of Baja California Wed afternoon through the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE gap winds persist across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W. Seas are estimated at 6 to 7 ft. Farther north, light to gentle winds prevail, with seas 6 to 8 ft in NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama N of 06.5N. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell, except 6 to 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will support a continuation of strong NE gap winds over the Papagayo region through Wed morning, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW to W swell. Meanwhile, seas of 6 to 9 ft will also continue offshore Guatemala and El Salvador into mid-week due to continued NW swell over the area. Moderate NW swell will also affect the remainder of the area through mid-week. Fresh N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in moderate or lighter winds across the rest of the area through the end of this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from central Baja California to near 25N117W. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are north of the front and east of 125W. In the wake of the front, seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell north of 25N between 118W and 132W. Farther west, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 27N136W, leading to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 22N and west of 125W. However, fresh SW winds have begun north of 29N and west of 134W ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW. The pressure gradient between the 1025 mb high pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is yielding fresh to strong NE trades from the ITCZ to 18N and west of 126W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere from the ITCZ to 22N, and west of 117W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, winds are moderate or less. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across the entire area in NW swell. For the forecast, NW swell of 10 to 12 ft north of 27N between 122W and 132W will subside slightly to the 8 to 10 ft range early Tue. Elsewhere combined seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell will persist tonight before the area east of 120W sees gradually subsiding seas Tue through Tue night. The next cold front will enter the northwest waters tonight, extend from near 30N128W to 26N140W Tue evening, from near 30N118W to 25N130W midday Wed, and from the central Gulf of California near 27N111W to 21N127W early Thu. Large NW swell filling in behind this front will build seas to 12 to 15 ft across the waters north of 25N Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 22N, and west of 125W, will increase to strong and expand in areal coverage Tue through Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 13 ft in that area. $$ Stripling