000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012133
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A high pressure ridge in the
Gulf of Mexico along 25N will amplify just enough to produce a
small area of short-lived northerly gale force winds tonight in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft tonight. 
The pattern will change enough by early Tue morning to allow the 
winds to start to diminish, as low pressure develops along a 
stalled front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong 
gap winds and locally rough seas will persist into Tue afternoon.
Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N86W to 05N93W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 08N115W. A 1012 mb low pressure near
08N117W is along a NE-SW oriented surface trough extending from 
10N115W to 05N120W that splits the ITCZ. The ITCZ resumes from 
07N127W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
02N to 07N between 78W and 83W, from 05N to 11N between 107W and 
118W, and from 03N to 07N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A cold front extends from Baja California Norte south of El
Rosario near 29.5N115W to 23N125W. Recent scatterometer data
shows moderate to fresh winds on both sides of the front, north
of 27N. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Moderate NW winds are occurring off Baja California
Sur and in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, mostly 
gentle winds are observed. A recent satellite altimeter pass
shows 8 to 9 ft seas offshore Baja California Norte. Similar sea
heights are likely occurring across most of the Mexican offshore 
waters, except for 6 to 8 ft within 120 nm of the coast between 
the Guatemala border and Oaxaca, and over the Gulf of California,
where seas are 1 to 2 ft.

For the forecast, winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Large NW swell offshore
southern and southwestern Mexico will subside Tue. Due to the
current cold front across the Baja area described above, swell 
of 8 ft or greater will remain over the waters west of Baja 
California through Tue evening, before subsiding Tue night. The 
next cold front will reach the waters west of Baja California 
Wed. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow in behind the
front to the north of Cabo San Lazaro and persist through Thu
night. Another round of large NW swell will follow in behind 
this front, affecting the waters west of Baja California Wed 
afternoon through the end of the week. This front will also
produce fresh to strong winds and building seas in the northern 
Gulf of California Wed night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas 
are estimated at 7 to 9 ft. Farther north, seas are 6 to 9 ft in
NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N
to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds 
are gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell,
except 6 to 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will 
support a continuation of strong NE gap winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Wed morning, with 7 to 9 ft combined seas. 
Meanwhile, seas of 6 to 9 ft will also continue offshore 
Guatemala and El Salvador into mid-week due to continued NW 
swell over the area. Moderate NW swell will also affect the
remainder of the area through mid-week. Fresh N winds will pulse
at night in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Otherwise, a 
weak pressure gradient will result in moderate or lighter winds 
across the rest of the area through the end of this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends from 29.5N115W to 23N125W. Moderate to fresh
NW winds are north of the front. In the wake of the front, seas
are 10 to 12 ft in NW swell north of 25N between 122W and 136W. 
Farther west, a 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 29N134W, 
leading to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 24N and west of 
130W. However, fresh SW winds have begun north of 28.5N and west
of 136W due to a cold front approaching from the west. The 
pressure gradient between the 1026 mb high pressure and lower 
pressure associated with the ITCZ is yielding fresh to strong NE 
trades from the ITCZ to 19N and west of 126W. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere from the ITCZ to 22N, 
and west of 117W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, winds are
moderate or less. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across the entire area in 
NW swell.

For the forecast, NW swell of 10 to 12 ft north of 27N between 
122W and 132W will subside slightly to the 8 to 10 ft range by
late tonight into early Tue. Elsewhere combined seas of 8 to 12 
ft in NW swell will persist tonight before the area east of 120W
sees gradually subsiding seas Tue through Tue night. The next 
cold front will enter the northwest waters tonight, extend from 
near 30N128W to 26N140W Tue evening, from near 30N118W to 
25N130W midday Wed, and from the central Gulf of California near
27N111W to 21N127W early Thu. Large NW swell coming in behind 
this front will build seas to 12 to 15 ft across the waters north
of 25N Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds 
between the ITCZ and 22N, and west of 125W, will increase to 
strong and expand in areal coverage Tue through Fri, leading to 
seas of 11 to 13 ft in that area.

$$
Hagen