000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A high pressure ridge in the Gulf of Mexico along 25N will amplify just enough to produce a small area of short-lived northerly gale force winds tonight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The pattern will change enough by early Tue morning to allow the winds to start to diminish, as low pressure develops along a stalled front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong gap winds and locally rough seas will persist into Tue afternoon. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 05N90W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends from 04N93W to 07.5N113W. A 1011 mb low pressure near 08N117.5W is along a NE-SW oriented surface trough extending from 10N115W to 05N122W that spilts the ITCZ. The ITCZ resumes from 04N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 108W and 120W, and from 03N to 07N between 132W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the waters west of Baja California from 30N118.5W to 26N121W to 23N130W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are on both sides of the front, and are present across the offshore waters north of 26N. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, mostly gentle winds are observed. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell prevail across most of the waters offshore Mexico, except 6 to 8 ft within 120 nm of the coast between the Guatemala border and Oaxaca. Over the Gulf of California, seas are 1 to 2 ft. For the forecast, winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Large NW swell offshore southern and southwestern Mexico will subside Tue. Due to the current cold front just west of Baja California, swell of 8 ft or greater will remain over the waters west of Baja California through Tue evening, before subsiding Tue night. The next cold front will reach the waters west of Baja California Wed. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow in behind this from off Baja California Norte. Another round of large NW swell will follow in behind this front, affecting the waters west of Baja California Wed afternoon through the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are estimated at 8 to 9 ft. Farther north, seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N to NNE winds continue in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, a building ridge north of the area will support a continuation of strong NE gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed morning, with 7 to 9 ft combined seas. Meanwhile, seas of 6 to 9 ft will also continue offshore Guatemala and El Salvador into mid-week due to continued NW swell over the area. Moderate NW swell will also affect the remainder of the area through mid-week. Fresh N winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will result in moderate or lighter winds across the rest of the area through the end of this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 30N118.5W to 26N121W to 23N130W. Fresh NW winds are NW of the front, along with seas of 9 to 13 ft in NW swell. Farther west, a 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 30N133W, leading to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 24N and west of 132W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is yielding fresh to strong NE trades from 06N to 19N and west of 126W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere from the ITCZ to 22N, and west of 117W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, winds are moderate or less. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across the entire area in NW swell. For the forecast, swell of 11 to 13 ft will persist through today mainly north of 27N between 123W and 134W in the NW swell behind the cold front that is currently across the eastern portion of the area. Elsewhere combined seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell will persist tonight before the area east of 120W sees gradually subsiding seas Tue through Tue night. The next cold front will enter the northwest waters tonight, extend from near 30N128W to 26N140W Tue evening, and from near 30N118W to 25N130W by midday Wed. Large NW swell coming in behind this front will build seas to 12 to 15 ft across the waters north of 25N Tue night through Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 22N, and west of 125W, will increase to strong and expand in areal coverage Tue through Fri, leading to seas of 11 to 13 ft in that area. $$ Hagen