000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232041
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N97W to 06N135W. A surface trough extends from 
09N137W to 04N139W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
05N to 11N between 108W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Moderate W to NW winds are occurring over central Gulf of 
California. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to 8 ft. Otherwise, a weak 
pressure gradient prevails across the area with mainly light to 
gentle winds occurring. Seas average 3 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft 
offshore Baja California Norte in NW swell. Seas in the Gulf of 
California are 2-3 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail across 
the Tehuantepec region through tonight, with seas to 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, winds across the area will be moderate or weaker. High
pressure building over the U.S. Great Basin should funnel fresh 
to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Mon through Tue 
night. NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward across 
the waters west of Baja California through tonight before 
diminishing. The next set of large NW swell will begin to move 
into the Baja California Norte waters early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A significant pressure gradient in the area continues to support
fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft within this area. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or
weaker. N swell associated with gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec has decayed enough offshore Guatemala such that seas 
are below 8 ft 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail over the
Gulf of Papagayo region into tonight. Fresh N winds will  pulse 
over the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Elsewhere, winds are
expected to be moderate or weaker for the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell with seas of 8 to 9 ft are continuing to impact the 
waters north of 07N and west of 122W. These seas will gradually 
diminish into tonight, but remain above 8 ft through Sun. Winds 
in this area are generally moderate to fresh and NE. Elsewhere, 
the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the NE trades will weaken to moderate across 
the waters by tonight. A new set of significant NW swell will 
arrive in the NW waters Sun, with seas Sun night and Mon 
exceeding 12 ft as the swell propagates SE through early next 
week.

$$
ERA