022 
AXPZ20 KNHC 222132
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 05N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N90W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-10N and W of 126W. 
Scattered moderate convection prevails from 03N-12N between 
between 92W-106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A cold front extends from 30N115W to 20N123W. Moderate to fresh 
winds are expected behind this front. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient prevails across the area with moderate or less winds 
occurring. Seas are 3-6 ft in the area, except for waters west of
Baja California Norte where seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell. Seas 
in the Gulf of California are 2-3 ft. Near gale-force NE winds  
prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to 10 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move E through
waters W of Baja California as well as most of the Gulf of 
California through tonight before gradually dissipating into the
weekend. Near gale-force winds will prevail across the 
Tehuantepec region through early Sat, with seas to 10 ft. 
Elsewhere, winds across the area will be moderate or weaker. At 
the extended range, high pressure building over the U.S. Great 
Basin should funnel fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of 
California Mon through Tue night. NW swell will propagate 
southeastward across the waters west of Baja California through 
tonight before diminishing Sat. The next set of large NW swell 
will move into the Baja California Norte waters Sun through early
next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A significant pressure gradient in the area continues to support
fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas 
are near 8 ft within this area. Fresh N winds are also occurring
over the Gulf of Panama with seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds 
are moderate or weaker. NW swell with seas to 7 ft in the 
Guatemala offshore waters are being generated by Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail over the
Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat night. Fresh N winds will 
continue pulse over the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. 
Elsewhere, winds are expected to be moderate or weaker for the 
next several days. NW swell generated by the Tehuantepec gap 
wind event will continue to impact the Guatemala-El Salvador 
offshore waters through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell with seas of 8 to 10 ft are continuing to impact the 
waters north of 08N and west of 120W. These seas will gradually 
diminish through Sat, but remain above 8 ft through Sun. A cold 
front extends from 30N115W to 20N123W. NW winds prevail west of 
the front. NW swell prevails across the basin, with seas to 10 ft
mainly near and north of 24N. Elsewhere, the trades are moderate
or weaker with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front and an accompanying low center
will progress eastward with NW winds north of 26N east of 120W 
dropping below fresh speeds tonight as the low dissipates and 
the front weakens. Likewise, the NE trades will weaken to 
moderate across the waters Sat. The NW swell will continue 
propagating southeastward while gradually diminishing. 
Elsewhere, seas will be 6-8 ft.

$$
ERA