000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Dec 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the W Gulf of Mexico is forcing gale-force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Peak seas are around 15 ft. 8 ft seas extend west- southwestward to 09N110W. These northerly gap winds will gradually diminish over the next couple of days with gale conditions ending Thu night. Strong winds will persist through the end of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N81W to 06N92W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N92W to 09N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 14N and west of 107W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region. A 1020 mb high pressure system anchored near 31N134W extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A modest pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the SW United States support moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 4-7 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin should produce fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California starting on Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Looking ahead, a new gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec may begin on Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A robust high pressure system over the SE United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending westward to 93W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, building to near 10 ft later tonight. Rough seas produced by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is impacting the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-3 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo should continue through Fri before diminishing. The large NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters will only gradually diminish through Fri and once again occur beginning on Sun. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak subtropical ridge positioned 31N134W and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ result in moderate to fresh NE trades between 08N-25N across the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft south of 20N due to combined NE wind waves and SE swell. Large 8-11 ft NW to N swell being produced by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event extends equatorward to 03N and westward to 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a large extratropical low will approach the NW corner of our waters on Thu with strong to near-gale S to SW winds ahead of its associated cold front, possibly reaching gale force Thu night. After the front reaches the NW corner on Thu night, near gale to gale W to NW winds behind the front should occur north of 23N west of 130W through Sat. Very large NW swell will be accompanying this system with seas up to near 20 ft and 12 ft seas continuing through the weekend north of 20N west of 127W. The remainder of the waters will have winds moderate or weaker and moderate seas. $$ Delgado