156 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong pressure gradient between a
1026 mb high pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico and 
lower pressures in the deep tropics support storm-force winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Peak seas should reach around 20 ft this
morning. Storm-force winds will end later this morning, but 
gale-force winds and rough seas will prevail in the region of 
Tehuantepec through Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Costa Rica and
Panama near 08N83W to 06N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N94W to 
06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection
is noted north of 04N and east of 83W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 06N to 10N and west of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

A strong high pressure system over the Great Basin of the United
States sustain fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of 
California. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. 
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are 
present in the offshore waters of Baja California, along with 
seas of 4-7 ft. However, fresh northerly winds are filtering 
through the narrow gaps and affecting the nearshore waters of 
Baja California along the Pacific coast. 

Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring in the
offshore waters of SW Mexico. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong 
NW winds over the Gulf of California through early this morning.
A recurrence of fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of 
California may occur Fri into Sat. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest satellite imagery show a couple of showers and isolated
thunderstorms affecting the Gulf of Panama and offshore waters. Fresh
to locally strong easterly gap winds are affecting the Gulf of Papagayo
region, including the coast of southern Nicaragua, and extends 
westward to about 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. The
highest seas are found south of the Galapagos islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds are forecast across
the Papagayo region through the next several days. Seas will 
build to near 9 ft tonight into Wed. Winds and seas may subside 
Thu night into Fri. Gentle to moderate breezes are expected 
elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will generate large NW swell that will affect the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Tue 
night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific continues under the
influence of a strong ridge positioned near 33N136W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depicted fresh to strong easterly
winds north of ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters
are 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh SE-E winds and seas of 7-9 ft are
found south of the ITCZ and west of 100W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the surface ridge to the north will weaken as
it drifts S into the region Tue, diminishing the trades. Seas 
should drop below 8 ft Wed over the tradewind belt. Tonight into 
Mon night, fresh to strong NE winds associated with Tehuantepec 
gap winds will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W with 
seas 8-12 ft. A large, long-period swell should reach the NW 
corner of the waters by Wed night and gradually decay while 
moving SE through the end of the week. 

$$
Delgado